More people are getting in on buy-to-let. Brewin Dolphin has done some scary numbers on the issue this week.
Its example has a landlord with an 80% loan-to-value (LTV) mortgage getting £10,000 in rent and paying £8,000 in interest. On his £2,000 profit he currently pays 40% of £2,000 (£800) leaving him a net gain of £1,200. However, come 2020 his tax bill will be calculated on his turnover minus a 20% tax credit. 40% of £10,000 is £4,000. The relief comes to 20% of the interest (£8,000x20%=£1,600). The result is a £2,400 tax bill. Add that to his mortgage interest and you will see that his annual profit of £1,200 turns into an annual loss of £400. Ow.
The Telegraph gets it too. They ran an article this week looking at a higher-rate taxpayer with a £240,000 mortgage on a £300,000 property. He has a five-year interest-only fixed rate mortgage at 3.99%. That costs him £800 a month. He then gets in £1,000 in rental income giving him a current annual profit of £1,440. However, that isn't going to last long.
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Assuming his rental income doesn't rise very significantly, his profit falls to £0 in 2019 and becomes a loss of £480 in 2020. There is a calculator for all this on the Telegraph's site.
A large part of the UK population still doesn't seem to think it matters. A YouGov/Brewin Dolphin survey suggests that the vast majority still think that buy to let is a great investment particularly for retirees. Maybe they're right. Maybe rents will rise super-fast from here as wages begin to rise. Or maybe capital gains will be such that no one much cares about cash flow if you are making 20% a year on a house perhaps you can just keep borrowing against that house to cover your cash flow issues? But we aren't so sure.
Not many people are brave enough to lose money on an investment in cash terms every month. And rising housing supply in the UK (note that 75% of developers think it is getting easier to get planning permission here) suggests to us that at some point capital gains will disappoint. Getting into buy-to-let now with borrowed money seems like a risk that really isn't worth taking.
-
House prices to crash? Your house may still be making you money, but not for much longerOpinion If you’re relying on your property to fund your pension, you may have to think again. But, says Merryn Somerset Webb, if house prices start to fall there may be a silver lining.
-
Prepare your portfolio for recessionOpinion A recession is looking increasingly likely. Add in a bear market and soaring inflation, and things are going to get very complicated for investors, says Merryn Somerset Webb.
-
Investing for income? Here are six investment trusts to buy nowOpinion For many savers and investors, income is getting hard to find. But it's not impossible to find, says Merryn Somerset Webb. Here, she picks six investment trusts that are currently yielding more than 4%.
-
Stories are great – but investors should stick to realityOpinion Everybody loves a story – and investors are no exception. But it’s easy to get carried away, says Merryn Somerset Webb, and forget the underlying truth of the market.
-
Everything is collapsing at once – here’s what to do about itOpinion Equity and bond markets are crashing, while inflation destroys the value of cash. Merryn Somerset Webb looks at where investors can turn to protect their wealth.
-
Value is starting to emerge in the marketsOpinion If you are looking for long-term value in the markets, some is beginning to emerge, says Merryn Somerset Webb. Indeed, you may soon be able to buy traditionally expensive growth stocks on the cheap, too.
-
ESG investing could end up being a classic mistakeOpinion ESG investing has been embraced with enormous speed and zeal. But think long and hard before buying in, says Merryn Somerset Webb.
-
UK house prices will fall – but not for a few yearsOpinion UK house prices look out of reach for many. But the truth is that British property is surprisingly affordable, says Merryn Somerset Webb. Prices will fall at some point – but not yet.
