Meddling by the world’s central bankers has created a hideous, distorted version of the markets, says Dan Denning.
The UK bank rate
If the UK's bank rate (what we all used to call 'base' rate) rises, mortgage rates won't be far behind. That could mean higher mortgage payments for millions.
This chart will give you an idea of just how low the UK bank rate currently is. It shows the bank rate in red, and RPI minus the bank rate in blue going back to 1948.
CRB/Reuters food index
With around 11% of the UK CPI consisting of foodstuffs, this index is a useful indicator of future cost of living rises. Food prices are more volatile than changes in the overall cost of living.
The index rose by more than 10% over the last decade, but the index is about 8% lower year-on-year.
That could indicate that Britain's inflationary pressures are decreasing for the moment.
Many of the goods we buy in our shops are made in China. So China's inflation rate is now a major determinant of the UK's cost of living.
For years, we've been used to paying lower prices on our Chinese imports. But soaring wages and pricier food drove up CPI in China, and that meant higher costs for British consumers.
Chinese inflation has slipped since 2011. July's Chinese CPI was up by 1.65% year-on-year.
The CBI MTE survey
This survey gives the latest snapshot of UK manufacturing trends. It's a handy guide to price pressures at the factory gate – and to CPI inflation.
For July, this sub-index stood at -6, ie, 6% more survey respondents expected their selling prices in three months' time to be lower rather than higher.
The index leads UK inflation by some two months. The broad downtrend suggests inflationary pressure is falling for the moment.
The producer price index (PPI)
The 'output' PPI - often called the 'factory gate' price – measures what the UK's manufacturers charge their retail customers, who in turn sell on to us.
PPI output prices tend to be more volatile than consumer prices, but the overall trend is similar and they are a handy warning indicator.
July's output PPI was 1.6% lower year-on-year. The downtrend in PPI suggests inflationary pressure is easing for the moment.
UK average weekly earnings (AWE) index
If wages rise, employers try to pass these costs onto customers by raising prices, thus pushing up inflation. UK labour costs are rising.
June's AWE index shows total UK wages rising an annualised 2.4%.
A sudden jump in pay packets would add to inflationary pressures and could force a rate hike sooner than expected.
The BRC Nielsen shop price index
This is a key indicator of what's happening to prices in Britain's shops. So it's a very handy guide as to what to expect from UK CPI inflation.
In July, the BRC Neilsen Shop Price index was down 1.4% year-on-year. It tends to be 1-2% below UK CPI.
The overall downtrend in the SPI suggests inflationary pressure is easing in Britain for the moment.
The growth in world trade is slowing. In the second quarter, growth fell to just 1.1%, the worst since the 2008 financial crisis.
Canada’s GDP shrunk at an annualised 0.5% rate in the second quarter, after a 0.8% fall in the first – so the country is now technically in recession.
The number of migrants entering Europe is expected to rise to 3,000 a day over the next few months, with the favoured destination Germany.
Forget four months, says Bill Bonner. A market recovery could take 40 years.
We live in a bizarre, fake world, says Dan Denning. Dominated by fake money printed by people who are faking it.
Central banks claim to set interest rates for the benefit of all. But the way they manipulate the price of money is hurting all but a very small elite.
China’s authoritarian government has made a mess of dealing with its stockmarket crash. But it’s OK, says John Stepek. There’s no need to panic. Here’s why.
The problem we had in 2008 is exactly the same problem we have today, says Dan Denning. The world is on the brink of disaster again.
Super-low interest rates are not helping Britain’s economy recover, says Merryn Somerset Webb. They’re holding it back.
Recent sharp falls in emerging-market currencies have drawn parallels with the 1997 Asian crisis. Are we facing a similar situation? Cris Sholto Heaton investigates.