0DTE options: should you bet on America's favourite?
Zero-days-to-expiration (0DTE) options are popular with US traders seeking high leverage, but consistent profits by betting on short-term market direction are slim
The S&P 500 index tends to rise or fall half a per cent in a day – a swing of 50 points or so. That may not mean much to a buy-and-hold investor but, to a trader, it’s enough for a spectacular gain if they employ sufficient leverage. With 20:1 leverage, for example, that half a per cent move in the index means a 10% move in the value of your position.
But while using spread bets, contracts for difference (CFDs) or futures for that kind of trade will give you much more potential upside, you also have more downside if the trade goes against you. In some trades, the downside is – in theory – potentially unlimited.
Options are different, of course. With some (not all) options, your maximum loss is capped at the outset. For example, with a long call option, the downside is limited to the premium paid, while the potential gain is much greater if stocks surge upwards. That kind of asymmetric pay-off makes them very attractive to people who are drawn to lottery-ticket-type trades.
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
This helps explain why the powerful bull market in the US in recent years has been accompanied by the increasing use of options by retail traders – and, in particular, an explosive growth in zero-days-to-expiration options (0DTEs), or “dailies”.
What are 0DTE options and how do they work?
A 0DTE is an options contract that expires on the day it is being traded. In the past, S&P 500 options trading activity would be concentrated in contracts that would expire relatively soon, but still had a few days or weeks to run. Today, 0DTEs account for more than 40% of S&P 500 options activity.
S&P 500 options contracts used to have one weekly expiry. This went up to three days a week and then five in 2022. So there is an index options contract expiring each day, which is very appealing for a trader who wants to take a punt on how the market will move because of a US Federal Reserve meeting… a payrolls report… or Nvidia’s results. They can buy an out of the money call or put and hope for the best.
Since the option will expire that day, there’s a high possibility that it will expire worthless if it is not already in the money. However, the premium will be small. If the market moves enough to bring it in-the-money, the pay-off can be large. Note, though, that research by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) shows that the big intraday swings needed for large gains in 0DTEs are not common – less than 10% of moves are “gap” moves (meaning a two-standard deviation sudden increase in short-term volatility).
So 0DTEs come with a serious health warning. This kind of trading is high risk for addiction. Once you’ve seen a $5 bet end up worth hundreds, it can be very intoxicating. You can see why traders get seduced into buying them and end up consistently losing money over time.
Can you make money with 0DTEs?
So is there a way to trade 0DTEs with any prospect of success? The characteristics of these trades – a very short time to expiry (so they lose value very quickly through a trading session), a high chance of expiring worthless and very convex pay-offs (small moves in the index can mean a big move in the value of the option) – mean that timing is all important. This doesn’t simply mean timing in relation to the underlying market move, but timing in relation to the expiry of the option.
Activity in 0DTEs tends to start trailing off by around 11.30am New York time. Canny traders tend to buy the option that has one day to expiry, hold it overnight (when the price will probably gap up or down) and sell it in the morning of the following session (when it becomes the current 0DTE). This trading behaviour accounts for the tighter spreads and greater volume in 0DTEs before noon.
Consistently successful 0DTE traders will not be those who happen to end the trading day owning options that ended in the money because luck went their way that time. Instead, those who trade the high volatility inherent in these options and then get out before the market dries up, may have a better chance.
This article was first published in MoneyWeek's magazine. Enjoy exclusive early access to news, opinion and analysis from our team of financial experts with a MoneyWeek subscription.
Sign up to Money Morning
Our team, led by award winning editors, is dedicated to delivering you the top news, analysis, and guides to help you manage your money, grow your investments and build wealth.
Theo is a former financial writer and editor, having written for reputable titles such as Euromoney Institutional Investor and Redwood Publishing. He has also appeared on-screen with Al Jazeera, BBC and CNBC and on MoneyWeek Theo covered funds, share tips and stockmarkets. He also edited the country's oldest newsletter with Lord Rees-Mogg for four years. Theo now runs his own content marketing agency for financial companies, and he is a seasoned CISI-qualified investment adviser.
-
Lloyds Bank Group closures to hit nearly 300 in 2025
Lloyds Bank Group is to close its doors to another 55 branches next year. Which ones are closing?
By Vaishali Varu Published
-
Which British stocks offer the best quality and growth?
A professional investor highlights British stocks that hit the sweet spot. This week, Alexandra Jackson, manager of Rathbone UK Opportunities Fund, picks three favourites
By Alexandra Jackson Published
-
How to trade commodities using spread betting and CFDs
Commodities such as energy, metals and foods behave differently to stocks and bonds. Learning how to trade them can open up new opportunities to profit from volatility
By Eoin Treacy Published
-
Spread betting for beginners: five trading tips
A short-term trading strategy can complement a long-term investment portfolio, but it can be costly for the unwary and reckless
By Dr Matthew Partridge Published
-
Kellanova shares surge by 16%
Shares in Pringles maker, Kellanova, hiked by 16% – should you buy?
By Dr Matthew Partridge Published
-
Three consumer staples stocks delivering consistent dividends
Richard Saldanha, fund manager at Aviva Investors, highlights three promising consumer staples stocks to invest in.
By Richard Saldanha Published
-
BP shares bounce back due to shareholder returns – is it good enough?
BP shareholders can expect to pocket a billion-dollar payout due to unexpectedly high profits. But are investors convinced?
By Dr Matthew Partridge Published
-
Diageo announces first sales slump since the pandemic
British drinks company Diageo seems to have lost its spirits after losing almost a tenth of its shares. Do troubles lie ahead for the Guinness maker?
By Dr Matthew Partridge Published
-
Reckitt Benckiser shares hit 10-year low over baby formula fears
Household goods giant Reckitt Benckiser’s shares slumped after rival Abbott's $495 million baby formula lawsuit. Should investors be worried?
By Dr Matthew Partridge Published
-
Ocado shares plunge after FTSE 100 demotion
Ocado remains unprofitable and overvalued. Is it time to let go of the online supermarket?
By Dr Matthew Partridge Published