Eye-popping COT data reveals some huge swings

As mere human beings, traders are capable of dramatic about-turns in sentiment. John C Burford refers to two recent examples, and explains what they mean for the markets.

With the Fed seemingly in complete control of the financial markets (as most believe), and with all eyes upon Wednesday's release of their latest deliberations and forecasts, the latest commitments of traders (COT) data is showing some remarkablere-alignments as traders/investors position themselves for what they believe the report will say.

Last Friday, the latest COT data was released for the date of Tuesday 11 June, and some of the switching is truly amazing.

Subscribe to MoneyWeek

Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE

Get 6 issues free
https://cdn.mos.cms.futurecdn.net/flexiimages/mw70aro6gl1676370748.jpg

Sign up to Money Morning

Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter

Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter

Sign up
Swipe to scroll horizontally
Contracts of EUR 125,000Row 0 - Cell 1 Row 0 - Cell 2 Row 0 - Cell 3 Open interest: 260,418
Commitments
68,95676,48914,860128,701106,793212,517198,14247,90162,276
Changes from 06/04/13 (Change in open interest: 19,685)
25,152-18,9367,094-20,26628,38011,98016,5387,7053,147
Percent of open in terest for each category of traders
26.529.45.749.441.081.676.118.423.9
Number of traders in each category (Total traders: 167)
4352355047109118Row 8 - Cell 7 Row 8 - Cell 8
Swipe to scroll horizontally
($50 x S&P 500 INDEX)Row 0 - Cell 1 Row 0 - Cell 2 Row 0 - Cell 3 Open interest: 3,397,407
Commitments
456,571341,749146,4482,460,4162,579,8763,063,4353,068,073333,972329,334
Changes from 06/04/13 (Change in open interest: 89,555)
-71,38113,50933,72349,26320,04611,60567,27877,95022,277
Percent of open in terest for each category of traders
13.410.14.372.475.990.290.39.89.7
Number of traders in each category (Total traders: 534)
1099863220234366362Row 8 - Cell 7 Row 8 - Cell 8

John is is a British-born lapsed PhD physicist, who previously worked for Nasa on the Mars exploration team. He is a former commodity trading advisor with the US Commodities Futures Trading Commission, and worked in a boutique futures house in California in the 1980s.

 

He was a partner in one of the first futures newsletter advisory services, based in Washington DC, specialising in pork bellies and currencies. John is primarily a chart-reading trader, having cut his trading teeth in the days before PCs.

 

As well as his work in the financial world, he has launched, run and sold several 'real' businesses producing 'real' products.