Rachel Reeves faces £23 billion capital gains tax “black hole” – will she be forced to look elsewhere?

The fiscal watchdog has downgraded its forecast for capital gains tax revenues, leaving chancellor Rachel Reeves with £23 billion less than previously expected

Chancellor Rachel Reeves leaves 11 Downing Street on 26 March 2025, ahead of the Spring Statement
(Image credit: Wiktor Szymanowicz/Future Publishing via Getty Images)

Chancellor Rachel Reeves could have less money to play with than previously expected when it comes to capital gains tax (CGT) revenues.

In a report published alongside the Spring Statement on Wednesday, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) downgraded its five-year CGT forecast by £23 billion.

Subscribe to MoneyWeek

Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE

Get 6 issues free
https://cdn.mos.cms.futurecdn.net/flexiimages/mw70aro6gl1676370748.jpg

Sign up to Money Morning

Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter

Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter

Sign up
Swipe to scroll horizontally
Row 0 - Cell 0

2023/24 (confirmed figures)

2024/25

2025/26

2026/27

2027/28

2028/29

2029/30

October 2024 forecast

£14.5bn

£15.7bn

£22.6bn

£22.0bn

£24.8bn

£28.1bn

£31.0bn

March 2025 forecast

£14.5bn

£13.3bn

£19.7bn

£19.4bn

£20.2bn

£23.1bn

£25.5bn

Difference

£0.0

-£2.4

-£2.8bn

-£2.6bn

-£4.6bn

-£5.1bn

-£5.5bn

Katie Williams
Staff Writer

Katie has a background in investment writing and is interested in everything to do with personal finance, politics, and investing. She enjoys translating complex topics into easy-to-understand stories to help people make the most of their money.

Katie believes investing shouldn’t be complicated, and that demystifying it can help normal people improve their lives.

Before joining the MoneyWeek team, Katie worked as an investment writer at Invesco, a global asset management firm. She joined the company as a graduate in 2019. While there, she wrote about the global economy, bond markets, alternative investments and UK equities.

Katie loves writing and studied English at the University of Cambridge. Outside of work, she enjoys going to the theatre, reading novels, travelling and trying new restaurants with friends.