Why Greece has a better chance of a deal than you might think

A Greek collapse would have more than just financial and economic consequences. A failed state on Europe’s southern flank is in nobody’s interests.

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Greece's islands are "just a raft ride" away from the civil wars of the Middle East

There is an excellent letter in the FT today on the matter of Greece that echoes what I have been saying for a few weeks now.

When most commentators look at the coming chaos they think of the financial and the economic consequences of Grexit. They do not focus on the social and geopolitical aspects of there being a "failed nation state in Europe's underbelly" says letter writer Nanda Menon.

"It is impossible to contain the political and security related consequences of a Grexit unless Greece and its citizens are also deprived of their essential rights under the treaties of the European Union and its associated protocols, annexes and declarations such as the free movement of people, the Schengen acquis, entitlement to social benefits on internal migration and so on."

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Let's not forget that Greece's islands are "just a raft ride" away from the civil wars of the Levant and that there is no reason why all 11 million Greeks still living in the EU if not using the euro would not be within their rights to appear in Berlin and London demanding jobs and/or benefits (something that would make it tricky for Merkel to "hold out on David Cameron's requests for a wider suspension of benefits for EU migrants").

Tsipras is betting on getting a deal. Look at it like this and you will see that his chances aren't as bad as they seem on first glance.

Merryn Somerset Webb

Merryn Somerset Webb started her career in Tokyo at public broadcaster NHK before becoming a Japanese equity broker at what was then Warburgs. She went on to work at SBC and UBS without moving from her desk in Kamiyacho (it was the age of mergers).

After five years in Japan she returned to work in the UK at Paribas. This soon became BNP Paribas. Again, no desk move was required. On leaving the City, Merryn helped The Week magazine with its City pages before becoming the launch editor of MoneyWeek in 2000 and taking on columns first in the Sunday Times and then in 2009 in the Financial Times

Twenty years on, MoneyWeek is the best-selling financial magazine in the UK. Merryn was its Editor in Chief until 2022. She is now a senior columnist at Bloomberg and host of the Merryn Talks Money podcast -  but still writes for Moneyweek monthly. 

Merryn is also is a non executive director of two investment trusts – BlackRock Throgmorton, and the Murray Income Investment Trust.