Why Greece has a better chance of a deal than you might think

There is an excellent letter in the FT today on the matter of Greece that echoes what I have been saying for a few weeks now.

When most commentators look at the coming chaos they think of the financial and the economic consequences of Grexit. They do not focus on the social and geopolitical aspects of there being a “failed nation state in Europe’s underbelly” says letter writer Nanda Menon.

“It is impossible to contain the political and security related consequences of a Grexit unless Greece and its citizens are also deprived of their essential rights under the treaties of the European Union and its associated protocols, annexes and declarations such as the free movement of people, the Schengen acquis, entitlement to social benefits on internal migration and so on.”

Let’s not forget that Greece’s islands are “just a raft ride” away from the civil wars of the Levant and that there is no reason why all 11 million Greeks – still living in the EU if not using the euro – would not be within their rights to appear in Berlin and London demanding jobs and/or benefits (something that would make it tricky for Merkel to “hold out on David Cameron’s requests for a wider suspension of benefits for EU migrants”).

Tsipras is betting on getting a deal. Look at it like this and you will see that his chances aren’t as bad as they seem on first glance.