Warren Buffett just got lucky

Warren Buffett is often hailed as a genius for his fabulous investment record. But the truth is that he probably just got lucky.

A few weeks ago I had an argument with an acquaintance about Warren Buffett. Everyone in the financial industry goes on about his fabulous financial record and the skills he has used to create it.

But I have long wondered if it isn't possible that Buffett is just a really lucky guy. After all, toss a couple of million coins 40 times and a few are bound to fall on heads each time. That's the way probability works. Buffett's record could be no more extraordinary than that of the person tossing the lucky coin.

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Merryn Somerset Webb

Merryn Somerset Webb started her career in Tokyo at public broadcaster NHK before becoming a Japanese equity broker at what was then Warburgs. She went on to work at SBC and UBS without moving from her desk in Kamiyacho (it was the age of mergers).

After five years in Japan she returned to work in the UK at Paribas. This soon became BNP Paribas. Again, no desk move was required. On leaving the City, Merryn helped The Week magazine with its City pages before becoming the launch editor of MoneyWeek in 2000 and taking on columns first in the Sunday Times and then in 2009 in the Financial Times

Twenty years on, MoneyWeek is the best-selling financial magazine in the UK. Merryn was its Editor in Chief until 2022. She is now a senior columnist at Bloomberg and host of the Merryn Talks Money podcast -  but still writes for Moneyweek monthly. 

Merryn is also is a non executive director of two investment trusts – BlackRock Throgmorton, and the Murray Income Investment Trust.