This is hard for me. Deep breath. Here we go. I think it is likely to be a one off, but I agree with the SNP's Nicola Sturgeon.
When it comes to the EU referendum, the Treasury, she says, is beginning to cross into "almost insulting people's intelligence". I'm not the only one here. Steve Hilton is with her too. The government, he says, is "frankly treating people like simpletons" with its almost comically "outlandish claims of dire outcomes".
The worst of these so far come of course in the Treasury's latest report on how Brexit can't fail to mean what George Osborne is calling our first ever "DIY recession", a phrase designed to suggest that neither government policy nor lousy voter choices have ever caused a recession before.
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
According to the Treasury, a vote for Brexit means a shock or a severe shock (there are no other options it seems it is impossible that things might be just fine). That means the economy being either 3.6% smaller or 6% smaller over two years. It means house prices being at worst 18% lower (that makes them 8% lower in absolute terms as they are expected to rise 10% if Remain win). It's also all nonsense.
As the Times points out, "no other credible forecaster" (to the extent that there are any at this point) is predicting a recession as their central case after Brexit. The UK might be heading for one at the moment but that's more about the economic cycle than about Brexit.
The report also assumes no government measures to soften any blows in fact it assumes no real policy changes at all, something that shows a remarkable lack of confidence in whatever government we might have after Brexit and for that matter in its own ability to advise the government.
It suggests that the consequences of a Brexit win are "immediate" when there are at least two years before there will be any change. It ignores the easiest and most likely post Brexit deal (remaining in the EEA). It presents forecasts as clear facts (when they just aren't). It uses Armageddon headlines to hide non scary results (the fine print tells us that in the "shock" case the economy would just contract by 0.1% a quarter for a year) Finally, it comes to its relative doomsday scenario by inventing a bizarrely optimistic outlook for the economy if we stay in the EU. It is, in summary, just a bit silly.
-
Christmas at Chatsworth: review of The Cavendish Hotel at BaslowMoneyWeek Travel Matthew Partridge gets into the festive spirit at The Cavendish Hotel at Baslow and the Christmas market at Chatsworth
-
Tycoon Truong My Lan on death row over world’s biggest bank fraudProperty tycoon Truong My Lan has been found guilty of a corruption scandal that dwarfs Malaysia’s 1MDB fraud and Sam Bankman-Fried’s crypto scam
-
Beating inflation takes more luck than skill – but are we about to get lucky?Opinion The US Federal Reserve managed to beat inflation in the 1980s. But much of that was down to pure luck. Thankfully, says Merryn Somerset Webb, the Bank of England may be about to get lucky.
-
Rishi Sunak can’t fix all our problems – so why try?Opinion Rishi Sunak’s Spring Statement is an attempt to plaster over problems the chancellor can’t fix. So should he even bother trying, asks Merryn Somerset Webb?
-
Young people are becoming a scarce resource – we should value them more highlyOpinion In the last two years adults have been bizarrely unkind to children and young people. That doesn’t bode well for the future, says Merryn Somerset Webb.
-
Ask for a pay rise – everyone else isOpinion As inflation bites and the labour market remains tight, many of the nation's employees are asking for a pay rise. Merryn Somerset Webb explains why you should do that too.
-
Why central banks should stick to controlling inflationOpinion The world’s central bankers are stepping out of their traditional roles and becoming much more political. That’s a mistake, says Merryn Somerset Webb.
-
How St Ives became St Tropez as the recovery drives prices sky highOpinion Merryn Somerset Webb finds herself at the epicentre of Britain’s V-shaped recovery as pent-up demand flows straight into Cornwall’s restaurants and beaches.
-
The real problem of Universal Basic Income (UBI)Merryn's Blog April employment numbers showed 75 per cent fewer people in the US returned to employment compared to expectations. Merryn Somerset-Webb explains how excessive government support is causing a shortage of labour.
-
Why an ageing population is not necessarily the disaster many people think it isOpinion We’ve got used to the idea that an ageing population is a bad thing. But that’s not necessarily true, says Merryn Somerset Webb.
