How to pay the EU divorce bill

A perpetual sovereign bond could give the EU an annual payment – but only if the UK economy does well.

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The EU is is surely willing to play nice
(Image credit: Jasper Juinen)

How much do we have to pay to get out of the EU unscathed? The answer will depend on Theresa May's (possibly dodgy) negotiation skills, but I think we can all assume that there will be a financial price for keeping cheap access to the single market without accepting all the strictures that usually go with it.

My guess is that the sum will be smaller than most think: any institution faced with losing 14% of its budget to someone who has said they are happy to walk is surely willing to play nice.

But whatever we have to pay, how do we pay?

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A neat answer comes in a letter to the Financial Times today. How about we create and hand over a "hypothecated long term (50 years) or perpetual sovereign bond?" suggests Oxford University's Dr Peter Johnson.

The bond would be guaranteed by the UK government but held by the ECB and its interest rate (payable to the ECB) would be equal to the real rate of growth of UK GNP.

That would work for everyone: it would spread the debt over a long time, while allowing the EU to get some cash on an annual basis.

But crucially it would also give the EU reason to want the UK to do well: they would not want our GNP to decline, or worse, go negative (hence requiring interest repayments). Win win?

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Merryn Somerset Webb

Merryn Somerset Webb started her career in Tokyo at public broadcaster NHK before becoming a Japanese equity broker at what was then Warburgs. She went on to work at SBC and UBS without moving from her desk in Kamiyacho (it was the age of mergers).

After five years in Japan she returned to work in the UK at Paribas. This soon became BNP Paribas. Again, no desk move was required. On leaving the City, Merryn helped The Week magazine with its City pages before becoming the launch editor of MoneyWeek in 2000 and taking on columns first in the Sunday Times and then in 2009 in the Financial Times

Twenty years on, MoneyWeek is the best-selling financial magazine in the UK. Merryn was its Editor in Chief until 2022. She is now a senior columnist at Bloomberg and host of the Merryn Talks Money podcast -  but still writes for Moneyweek monthly. 

Merryn is also is a non executive director of two investment trusts – BlackRock Throgmorton, and the Murray Income Investment Trust.