I saw this sign on a visit to Culross on Sunday (if you are ever in Fife, do visit it's lovely). It irritated me, so I photographed it and posted it on Twitter with the comment "Dodgy Brexit maths".
The pushback was pretty quick. But the interesting bit was the part of the sign everyone took as being the point. I was subjected to endless comments from followers explaining to me that 33.3% would indeed represent 50% of 66.6%. But the bit that bothered me wasn't that (I'm OK with maths), it was the idea that your "usable salaries are being cut by more than 33.3%" as a result of Brexit.
So keen are a large group of my Twitter followers to think that Brexit has made them poorer that they don't appear to consider this to be dodgy maths, but it looks that way to me.
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
We can only assume that it somehow refers to the pound and to the inflation we can expect as a result of its fall against most currencies since 23 June. But how this year's weakness in sterling is translated into a 33.3% fall in usable salaries is anyone's guess (I suppose I should have stopped in to ask, but it was a Sunday and my kids aren't much interested in Brexit).
A not quite 20% fall in the trade-weighted value of the pound does not translate into an equal and opposite percentage rise in prices (not every single input of every single product in the UK is produced abroad). At the same time, there has so far been no discernable effect on GDP (rising at an annual rate of 2.3% in the third quarter) or employment (the Nissan plant in Sunderland is good to go) as a result of the UK's intention to leave the EU. Nor has there been one on house prices except for in prime central London (although of course if house prices were to fall, that would surely represent a rise in some people's "usable income").
There has, as the evidence-orientated man at the Office for National Statistics says, so far been "little evidence of a pronounced effect in the immediate aftermath of the vote". All the things predicted by "Project Fear" may yet happen in the UK (early days, etc) but right now I am less bothered by that possibility than by the fact that an awful lot of people seem to be convinced they already have.
-
Four AI ETFs to buyIs now a good time to buy AI ETFs? We examine four AI ETFs that investors might want to add to their portfolio
-
Chase boosts easy-access interest rate - savers could earn 4.75%Chase is offering a boosted interest rate which is fixed for six months, on top of the standard variable rate
-
Beating inflation takes more luck than skill – but are we about to get lucky?Opinion The US Federal Reserve managed to beat inflation in the 1980s. But much of that was down to pure luck. Thankfully, says Merryn Somerset Webb, the Bank of England may be about to get lucky.
-
Rishi Sunak can’t fix all our problems – so why try?Opinion Rishi Sunak’s Spring Statement is an attempt to plaster over problems the chancellor can’t fix. So should he even bother trying, asks Merryn Somerset Webb?
-
Young people are becoming a scarce resource – we should value them more highlyOpinion In the last two years adults have been bizarrely unkind to children and young people. That doesn’t bode well for the future, says Merryn Somerset Webb.
-
Ask for a pay rise – everyone else isOpinion As inflation bites and the labour market remains tight, many of the nation's employees are asking for a pay rise. Merryn Somerset Webb explains why you should do that too.
-
Why central banks should stick to controlling inflationOpinion The world’s central bankers are stepping out of their traditional roles and becoming much more political. That’s a mistake, says Merryn Somerset Webb.
-
How St Ives became St Tropez as the recovery drives prices sky highOpinion Merryn Somerset Webb finds herself at the epicentre of Britain’s V-shaped recovery as pent-up demand flows straight into Cornwall’s restaurants and beaches.
-
The real problem of Universal Basic Income (UBI)Merryn's Blog April employment numbers showed 75 per cent fewer people in the US returned to employment compared to expectations. Merryn Somerset-Webb explains how excessive government support is causing a shortage of labour.
-
Why an ageing population is not necessarily the disaster many people think it isOpinion We’ve got used to the idea that an ageing population is a bad thing. But that’s not necessarily true, says Merryn Somerset Webb.
