US election: stockmarkets don’t care who’s in the White House
The economic cycle and America's central bank have a much bigger effect on long-term stockmarket returns than whether Democrats or Republicans are in power.

“No stimulus, no problem,” say William Watts and Sunny Oh for MarketWatch.com. This week Democrats and Republicans continued to discuss another stimulus package, but the odds of any deal before the election looked increasingly remote.
Nevertheless, bulls have decided that the American consumer can probably hold on until 2021 even without further help. Retail sales rose by 1.9% in September, the fifth straight month of gains.
That news cheered the S&P 500, which continues to trade about 3% short of its early September highs. Benefits from the $2.2trn CARES act, America’s pandemic stimulus package, ebbed over the summer, but that has yet to curb the enthusiasm of American consumers. That is because many households have a financial cushion, says Nathaniel Meyersohn for CNN Business. The US personal savings rate hit the highest level since 1981 in March.
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE

Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Stockmarkets appear to be positioning for a “blue wave” that will bring Democrats to power in the presidency and Congress, paving the way for more generous stimulus measures in January next year. Analysts say that a Democratic sweep would mean more regulation for energy, financial and healthcare businesses, while extra stimulus will boost construction and renewable energy shares, says Michael Mackenzie in the Financial Times. US presidential elections always create “anxiety and volatility” in markets, but long-term investors should “ignore the short-term market noise”.
The economic cycle and the Federal Reserve have a much bigger impact on long-term returns than whether Democrats or Republicans are in power. The S&P 500 is up by 53% since Trump took office. Under Obama it bounced by 71% and it rose even more under Reagan.
Sign up for MoneyWeek's newsletters
Get the latest financial news, insights and expert analysis from our award-winning MoneyWeek team, to help you understand what really matters when it comes to your finances.
Alex is an investment writer who has been contributing to MoneyWeek since 2015. He has been the magazine’s markets editor since 2019.
Alex has a passion for demystifying the often arcane world of finance for a general readership. While financial media tends to focus compulsively on the latest trend, the best opportunities can lie forgotten elsewhere.
He is especially interested in European equities – where his fluent French helps him to cover the continent’s largest bourse – and emerging markets, where his experience living in Beijing, and conversational Chinese, prove useful.
Hailing from Leeds, he studied Philosophy, Politics and Economics at the University of Oxford. He also holds a Master of Public Health from the University of Manchester.
-
Is the AI boom another dotcom bubble?
25 years on from the dotcom bubble bursting, is it time for investors to consider the sustainability of the AI boom in the stock market?
By Dan McEvoy Published
-
What is the S&P 500?
The S&P 500 is one of the world’s most popular stock market indices and has almost tripled in value over the last decade. But what is the S&P 500, and which companies does it contain?
By Daniel Hilton Published
-
Why CEOs deserve a pay rise
Opinion The CEOs of big companies often come under fire for being grossly overpaid. But the truth, as per some economists, is the opposite. Do they merit a pay rise?
By Stuart Watkins Published
-
Rolls-Royce stock jumps 15% – could it climb further?
Aircraft-engine group Rolls-Royce’s CEO has been hailed as a hero for spearheading the firm’s recovery. And the future looks bright, says Matthew Partridge
By Dr Matthew Partridge Published
-
The power of private markets
Interview Helen Steers, co-manager of the Pantheon International investment trust, tells MoneyWeek about the vast array of compelling opportunities in private equity
By Andrew Van Sickle Published
-
Vertex Pharmaceuticals is an uncommon opportunity in rare diseases
Vertex Pharmaceuticals operates in a profitable subsector and is poised for further success
By Dr Mike Tubbs Published
-
Global investors have overlooked these top tips in emerging markets
Opinion Chris Tennant, co-portfolio manager of Fidelity Emerging Markets, picks three attractive companies in emerging markets
By Chris Tennant Published
-
King Coal has not been dethroned yet — should you buy?
The demand for coal is only growing, yet investors don’t seem to want to take advantage of the opportunity, says Rupert Hargreaves
By Rupert Hargreaves Published
-
It’s time to start buying Europe again, says Merryn Somerset Webb
Opinion Europe's stocks are cheap and the economic backdrop is starting to look cheerier, says Merryn Somerset Webb
By Merryn Somerset Webb Published
-
Prosus to buy Just Eat for €4.1 billion as takeaway boom fades
Food-delivery platform Just Eat has been gobbled up by a Dutch rival. Now there could be further consolidation in the sector
By Dr Matthew Partridge Published