US election: stockmarkets don’t care who’s in the White House

Barack Obama © PASCAL ROSSIGNOL/AFP via Getty Images

Under Barack Obama the S&P 500 index jumped by 71%

(Image credit: © PASCAL ROSSIGNOL/AFP via Getty Images)

published 23 October 2020

“No stimulus, no problem,” say William Watts and Sunny Oh for MarketWatch.com. This week Democrats and Republicans continued to discuss another stimulus package, but the odds of any deal before the election looked increasingly remote.

Nevertheless, bulls have decided that the American consumer can probably hold on until 2021 even without further help. Retail sales rose by 1.9% in September, the fifth straight month of gains.

That news cheered the S&P 500, which continues to trade about 3% short of its early September highs. Benefits from the $2.2trn CARES act, America’s pandemic stimulus package, ebbed over the summer, but that has yet to curb the enthusiasm of American consumers. That is because many households have a financial cushion, says Nathaniel Meyersohn for CNN Business. The US personal savings rate hit the highest level since 1981 in March.

Subscribe to MoneyWeek

Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE

Get 6 issues free

https://cdn.mos.cms.futurecdn.net/flexiimages/mw70aro6gl1676370748.jpg

Sign up to Money Morning

Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter

Stockmarkets appear to be positioning for a “blue wave” that will bring Democrats to power in the presidency and Congress, paving the way for more generous stimulus measures in January next year. Analysts say that a Democratic sweep would mean more regulation for energy, financial and healthcare businesses, while extra stimulus will boost construction and renewable energy shares, says Michael Mackenzie in the Financial Times. US presidential elections always create “anxiety and volatility” in markets, but long-term investors should “ignore the short-term market noise”.

Explore More

Alex is an investment writer who has been contributing to MoneyWeek since 2015. He has been the magazine’s markets editor since 2019.

Alex has a passion for demystifying the often arcane world of finance for a general readership. While financial media tends to focus compulsively on the latest trend, the best opportunities can lie forgotten elsewhere.

He is especially interested in European equities – where his fluent French helps him to cover the continent’s largest bourse – and emerging markets, where his experience living in Beijing, and conversational Chinese, prove useful.

Hailing from Leeds, he studied Philosophy, Politics and Economics at the University of Oxford. He also holds a Master of Public Health from the University of Manchester.