“No stimulus, no problem,” say William Watts and Sunny Oh for MarketWatch.com. This week Democrats and Republicans continued to discuss another stimulus package, but the odds of any deal before the election looked increasingly remote.
Nevertheless, bulls have decided that the American consumer can probably hold on until 2021 even without further help. Retail sales rose by 1.9% in September, the fifth straight month of gains.
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Stockmarkets appear to be positioning for a “blue wave” that will bring Democrats to power in the presidency and Congress, paving the way for more generous stimulus measures in January next year. Analysts say that a Democratic sweep would mean more regulation for energy, financial and healthcare businesses, while extra stimulus will boost construction and renewable energy shares, says Michael Mackenzie in the Financial Times. US presidential elections always create “anxiety and volatility” in markets, but long-term investors should “ignore the short-term market noise”.
The economic cycle and the Federal Reserve have a much bigger impact on long-term returns than whether Democrats or Republicans are in power. The S&P 500 is up by 53% since Trump took office. Under Obama it bounced by 71% and it rose even more under Reagan.
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The shape of yields to come
Central banks are likely to buy up short-term bonds to keep debt costs down for governments
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Opinion Financial regulation and rising costs are killing off investment clubs that once used to be an enjoyable hobby, says David Prosser
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