Russia began easing its Covid-19 lockdown this week. The country has the world’s third-highest number of confirmed cases. New daily infections have been running at over 10,000 in recent days. A third of the Russian economy has “ground to a halt”, writes Jake Cordell for the Moscow Times, but the government cannot afford to turn on the fiscal taps. Russia needs oil at $42 a barrel to balance the budget, far away from current prices of around $30 a barrel. The “modest” rescue package will hardly cushion the pandemic blow.
The limited stimulus is increasing the chances of a “prolonged economic downturn”, says Liam Peach for Capital Economics. The severity of the Russian outbreak means that restrictions remain tighter than in many other countries even after lockdown easing.
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