Beware of investing in commercial property
With many companies are planning to adopt a “hybrid” working model once the pandemic is over, the market for office property is facing a reckoning.

The market for office property is facing a reckoning. Many companies are planning to adopt a “hybrid” working model once the pandemic is over, with weeks split between days in the office and days working from home. That means they will require less floorspace than before. A survey of Britain’s 258 biggest firms by PwC found that half have plans to “cut the size of their property portfolios”, says The Times. Planned reductions amount to “nine million sq ft” of space. That’s equivalent to 14 London skyscrapers-worth of floorspace that nobody wants.
“Globally, more than 103 million square feet of office space has already been vacated since the pandemic began”, according to data from broker Cushman & Wakefield, says The Economist. Moody’s Analytics thinks “roughly one in five offices in America will be empty in 2022”. Older buildings are particularly vulnerable. “Nearly two-thirds of commercial property in London” is over 20 years old.
Landlords at the premium end of the market are still feeling optimistic, says George Hammond in the Financial Times. Blue chips regard a swanky office as vital for recruiting top talent. They are still willing to splash out on “high-end finishes and cavernous atriums”. Premium London offices are attracting particularly high levels of investment. Yields as high as 4.2% are more attractive than the 2.75% average office yield available in Paris. Market insiders say the key theme is “bifurcation”: while “modern, flexible spaces” can still hold their own, older spaces are emptying out rapidly.
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE

Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
A coming crash?
Office prices in major global cities have so far held up well, says The Economist. That could change when governments withdraw crisis support and companies finalise their post-pandemic office plans. A property crash would pose systemic risks: about one-fifth of US bank lending, or over $2trn, has been made to commercial property. Pension funds are also heavily exposed. As Konrad Putzier reports in The Wall Street Journal, “big global pension funds have been raising their allocations to commercial real estate”. That looks odd, not least because it’s not only offices that face a reckoning. One in two US hotel rooms are unoccupied. Shopping malls are being ditched in favour of buying online. Warehouses, which service that need, are the only bright spot. So what gives? Funds fear inflation more than a price crash.
Bricks-and-mortar are a time-honoured inflation hedge, says Ben Wright in The Daily Telegraph. But inflation only happens “for those things people actually want”, and office space may no longer be one of them. “Investing in commercial property to protect against inflation may soon look like buying an umbrella ahead of a meteor shower.”
Sign up for MoneyWeek's newsletters
Get the latest financial news, insights and expert analysis from our award-winning MoneyWeek team, to help you understand what really matters when it comes to your finances.
Alex is an investment writer who has been contributing to MoneyWeek since 2015. He has been the magazine’s markets editor since 2019.
Alex has a passion for demystifying the often arcane world of finance for a general readership. While financial media tends to focus compulsively on the latest trend, the best opportunities can lie forgotten elsewhere.
He is especially interested in European equities – where his fluent French helps him to cover the continent’s largest bourse – and emerging markets, where his experience living in Beijing, and conversational Chinese, prove useful.
Hailing from Leeds, he studied Philosophy, Politics and Economics at the University of Oxford. He also holds a Master of Public Health from the University of Manchester.
-
Which UK region has the most in savings? Average savings by area
The amount people have in their savings differs from region to region in the UK. How does your nest egg compare to those living nearby?
-
Doug and Mary Perkins: Specsavers’ clear-sighted founders
Helped by the deregulation of the sector in the 1980s and brilliant advertising, Mary Perkins and her husband Doug have taken Specsavers to the top of the optometry market
-
A rebound in UK's commercial property – should you invest?
UK commercial property's three-year bear market finally appears to be over, says Max King
-
Investment opportunities in the world of Coca-Cola
There is far more to Coca-Cola than just one giant firm. The companies that bottle and distribute the ubiquitous soft drink are promising investments in their own right.
-
Streaming services are the new magic money tree for investors – but for how long?
Opinion Streaming services are in full bloom and laden with profits, but beware – winter is coming, warns Matthew Lynn
-
'Pension funds shouldn't be pushed into private equity sector'
Opinion The private-equity party is over, so don't push pension funds into the sector, says Merryn Somerset Webb.
-
Greg Abel: Warren Buffett’s heir takes the throne
Greg Abel is considered a safe pair of hands as he takes centre stage at Berkshire Hathaway. But he arrives after one of the hardest acts to follow in investment history, Warren Buffett. Can he thrive?
-
Who will be the next Warren Buffett?
Opinion There won’t be another Warren Buffett. Times have changed, and the opportunities are no longer there, says Matthew Lynn.
-
Will Comstock crash – or soar?
Opinion The upside for Comstock, a solar panel-recycling and biomass-refining group, dwarfs the downside, says Dominic Frisby.
-
'As AGMs go digital, firms must offer a new form of scrutiny for shareholders'
Opinion Technology has rendered big AGM meet-ups obsolete, but the board still needs to be held to account, says Matthew Lynn