Commercial property: a bet on going back to normal
Markets are saying that where we work has changed – and that makes an attractive contrarian investment. Cris Heaton picks the best bets in the commercial property sector.


Big changes in how the world runs tend to happen relatively slowly. Even wars have usually been preceded by rising tensions where the potential risks were obvious. In the same way, most of the trends that may be propelling us into a much less stable era than the last 40 years have been evident for some time. US-China disputes, inequality, money printing or climate change – these have been building for a decade or more.
Covid-19 is an obvious exception to this: it has upended the world more abruptly than any event in modern history. And in doing so, it has single-handedly created one major immediate question: whether people have shifted to working from home permanently, and whether the centres of big cities – which have been huge beneficiaries of globalisation – will be hollowed out as a result.
It’s all about demand
Lots of investors clearly believe this. The shares of many major companies and real-estate investment trusts (Reits) that own prime office space remain 35-45% below their pre-pandemic prices in the UK, the US and Europe. Given that the risk of interest rates rising must be almost zero for several years, there isn’t much rate-related threat to their valuations – you’d expect them to trade on lower yields in future, to reflect lower yields available elsewhere. So the risk for financially solid firms is almost entirely in future demand – a bet on whether the world has changed for good.
MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE

Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
How realistic is this? At the moment, we have more anecdote than data, but after six months, there are signs that firms are starting to find the problems in permanently working from home. JPMorgan has seen a decline in productivity, the bank’s chief executive Jamie Dimon told analysts last week, and also fears that younger employees miss out on the opportunity to learn from experienced ones. It’s now encouraging staff in the US to begin returning to offices. Meanwhile, surveys of employees typically suggest that people want the flexibility to work from home, but not to do so all the time. In many countries in Europe, the process of returning to the office is already more advanced than in London or New York (whose density – including crowded public transport – may delay it until there is a vaccine or treatment).
If Covid has changed where we work for good, office owners are a weak play on recovery. If people will return much of the time, they are very cheap. I’m slowly adding Land Securities (LSE: LAND) and British Land (LSE: BLND) despite the Brexit risk, and also hold Aroundtown (Xetra: AT1) in Germany. But there are many other options to consider if, like me, you are inclined to take this bet: Boston Properties (NYSE: BXP) and Vornado Realty Trust (NYSE: VNO) are two that are worth a close look in the US.
Get the latest financial news, insights and expert analysis from our award-winning MoneyWeek team, to help you understand what really matters when it comes to your finances.
Cris Sholto Heaton is an investment analyst and writer who has been contributing to MoneyWeek since 2006 and was managing editor of the magazine between 2016 and 2018. He is especially interested in international investing, believing many investors still focus too much on their home markets and that it pays to take advantage of all the opportunities the world offers. He often writes about Asian equities, international income and global asset allocation.
Cris began his career in financial services consultancy at PwC and Lane Clark & Peacock, before an abrupt change of direction into oil, gas and energy at Petroleum Economist and Platts and subsequently into investment research and writing. In addition to his articles for MoneyWeek, he also works with a number of asset managers, consultancies and financial information providers.
He holds the Chartered Financial Analyst designation and the Investment Management Certificate, as well as degrees in finance and mathematics. He has also studied acting, film-making and photography, and strongly suspects that an awareness of what makes a compelling story is just as important for understanding markets as any amount of qualifications.
-
UK house price growth slows amid Budget uncertainty
Annual house prices dropped in London while rising by only 0.1% month-on-month
-
Do I need landlord insurance?
Buy-to-let landlords need more than standard home insurance to protect their property. What is landlord insurance and how much does it cost?
-
Albert Einstein's first violin sells for £860,000 at auction
Albert Einstein left his first violin behind as he escaped Nazi Germany. Last week, it became the most expensive instrument not owned by a concert violinist
-
Who is Rob Granieri, the mysterious billionaire leader of Jane Street?
Profits at Jane Street have exploded, throwing billionaire Rob Granieri into the limelight. But it’s not just the firm’s success that is prompting scrutiny
-
Emerging markets boast top-quality growth stocks at bargain prices
Opinion Lim Wen Loong, investment director at Ashoka WhiteOak Capital, selects three growth stocks where he’d put his money
-
Beware the bubble in bitcoin treasury companies
Bitcoin treasury companies are no longer coining it. Short this one, says Matthew Partridge
-
Klarna leads a financial revolution – should investors buy?
Klarna has ambitions to rewire the global payments system and has huge growth potential
-
New faces don’t solve old problems – why strategy also matters when it comes to investment trusts
Opinion Changing managers often fails to boost a trust’s performance, says Max King
-
How to profit from silver’s record rise
Silver often lets investors down, but there may now be room for further gains, says Dominic Frisby
-
Are venture-capital trusts worth investing in?
Venture-capital trusts are a tax-efficient way to invest in early-stage companies. But are they worth the risk?