Commercial property: a bet on going back to normal
Markets are saying that where we work has changed – and that makes an attractive contrarian investment. Cris Heaton picks the best bets in the commercial property sector.


Big changes in how the world runs tend to happen relatively slowly. Even wars have usually been preceded by rising tensions where the potential risks were obvious. In the same way, most of the trends that may be propelling us into a much less stable era than the last 40 years have been evident for some time. US-China disputes, inequality, money printing or climate change – these have been building for a decade or more.
Covid-19 is an obvious exception to this: it has upended the world more abruptly than any event in modern history. And in doing so, it has single-handedly created one major immediate question: whether people have shifted to working from home permanently, and whether the centres of big cities – which have been huge beneficiaries of globalisation – will be hollowed out as a result.
It’s all about demand
Lots of investors clearly believe this. The shares of many major companies and real-estate investment trusts (Reits) that own prime office space remain 35-45% below their pre-pandemic prices in the UK, the US and Europe. Given that the risk of interest rates rising must be almost zero for several years, there isn’t much rate-related threat to their valuations – you’d expect them to trade on lower yields in future, to reflect lower yields available elsewhere. So the risk for financially solid firms is almost entirely in future demand – a bet on whether the world has changed for good.
MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE

Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
How realistic is this? At the moment, we have more anecdote than data, but after six months, there are signs that firms are starting to find the problems in permanently working from home. JPMorgan has seen a decline in productivity, the bank’s chief executive Jamie Dimon told analysts last week, and also fears that younger employees miss out on the opportunity to learn from experienced ones. It’s now encouraging staff in the US to begin returning to offices. Meanwhile, surveys of employees typically suggest that people want the flexibility to work from home, but not to do so all the time. In many countries in Europe, the process of returning to the office is already more advanced than in London or New York (whose density – including crowded public transport – may delay it until there is a vaccine or treatment).
If Covid has changed where we work for good, office owners are a weak play on recovery. If people will return much of the time, they are very cheap. I’m slowly adding Land Securities (LSE: LAND) and British Land (LSE: BLND) despite the Brexit risk, and also hold Aroundtown (Xetra: AT1) in Germany. But there are many other options to consider if, like me, you are inclined to take this bet: Boston Properties (NYSE: BXP) and Vornado Realty Trust (NYSE: VNO) are two that are worth a close look in the US.
Get the latest financial news, insights and expert analysis from our award-winning MoneyWeek team, to help you understand what really matters when it comes to your finances.
Cris Sholto Heaton is an investment analyst and writer who has been contributing to MoneyWeek since 2006 and was managing editor of the magazine between 2016 and 2018. He is especially interested in international investing, believing many investors still focus too much on their home markets and that it pays to take advantage of all the opportunities the world offers. He often writes about Asian equities, international income and global asset allocation.
Cris began his career in financial services consultancy at PwC and Lane Clark & Peacock, before an abrupt change of direction into oil, gas and energy at Petroleum Economist and Platts and subsequently into investment research and writing. In addition to his articles for MoneyWeek, he also works with a number of asset managers, consultancies and financial information providers.
He holds the Chartered Financial Analyst designation and the Investment Management Certificate, as well as degrees in finance and mathematics. He has also studied acting, film-making and photography, and strongly suspects that an awareness of what makes a compelling story is just as important for understanding markets as any amount of qualifications.
-
Landlords forecast to exit BTL market in droves – has the exodus started?
Smaller landlords are selling up in their tens of thousands, according to brokers, findings echoed by higher capital gains tax receipts on property. Is the era of the amateur landlord over?
-
Klarna IPO: how did the Swedish fintech perform on debut?
Klarna’s shares made a fast start following the BNPL company’s New York debut, but momentum waned later on. Should you invest in Klarna shares?
-
'Where to find the world’s hidden gems offering durable growth and value'
Opinion Joe Bauernfreund, chief executive officer and chief investment officer, AVI Global Trust, highlights three businesses where he'd put his money
-
What are wealth taxes and would they work in Britain?
The Treasury is short of cash and mulling over how it can get its hands on more money to plug the gap. Could wealth taxes do the trick?
-
UK bank stocks are no bargain – here's a safer alternative
Opinion Britain's banking sector faces severe political risks. Switch into this global financials trust instead, says Max King
-
Gold mining stocks outperform gold – can it last?
Opinion Gold miners are shining brighter than the yellow metal for the first time in this cycle. Enjoy the ride while it lasts, says Cris Sholto Heaton
-
The AI barons call time on the bubble
Opinion OpenAI's Sam Altman and other tech giants are warning that the AI boom is reaching dangerous territory. They may end up as the authors of their own demise
-
Three small companies with big potential
Opinion Nish Patel, portfolio manager of The Global Smaller Companies Trust, picks three small companies where he'd put his money
-
Automatic Data Processing is making big profits from organising offices – should you invest?
Automatic Data Processing has established itself as a one-stop shop for managing the workplace. Is it a sound long-term investment?
-
Crypto mogul Do Kwon pleads guilty to fraud
South Korean entrepreneur Do Kwon, who used to call critics cockroaches, faces a long spell in jail after pleading guilty to fraud relating to the collapse of two digital coins