Seth Klarman: despite all the stimulus, risk has not gone away
Despite the distortion of the markets by governments’ and central banks’ loose monetary policies, there is still plenty of risk for investors, says Seth Klarman, founder of the Baupost hedge fund.
Action by governments and central bankers has convinced investors that risk “has simply vanished”, says value investor Seth Klarman, founder of the Baupost hedge fund, in his latest letter to investors, quoted in the Financial Times.
Klarman has long been a critic of the Federal Reserve’s loose monetary policies, which he believes have badly undermined “the market’s usual role in price discovery... With so much stimulus being deployed, trying to figure out if the economy is in recession is like trying to assess if you had a fever after you just took a large dose of aspirin”.
Klarman points to electric-car maker Tesla as one of the most egregious examples. The group’s share price has risen “seemingly beyond all reason”. He blames low interest rates, which drive up the value of the estimated future cash flows used by analysts to calculate the present value (see box) of a company. “The more distant the eventual pay-off, the more the present value rises. When it comes to the value of cash flows, the vast and limitless future, yet to unfold, has gained considerable ground on the more firmly anchored present.”
MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
That said, while Klarman may feel that the investment environment is hostile, his fund has still been putting money to work. In the third quarter of 2020, Baupost invested $400m in a “special purpose acquisition vehicle” (a cash shell, effectively) launched by fellow hedge-fund manager Bill Ackman, with the goal of investing in “mature unicorns” – private companies valued at between $10bn and $15bn.
Get the latest financial news, insights and expert analysis from our award-winning MoneyWeek team, to help you understand what really matters when it comes to your finances.
MoneyWeek is written by a team of experienced and award-winning journalists, plus expert columnists. As well as daily digital news and features, MoneyWeek also publishes a weekly magazine, covering investing and personal finance. From share tips, pensions, gold to practical investment tips - we provide a round-up to help you make money and keep it.
-
My 6.5% Nationwide regular saver is due to mature - what are my options?Nationwide’s 6.5% regular saver is due to mature for those who opened one last year. Here is what you can do now to make the most of your savings
-
Leading European companies offer long-term growthOpinion Alexander Darwall, lead portfolio manager, European Opportunities Trust, picks three European companies where he'd put his money
-
Leading European companies offer long-term growth prospectsOpinion Alexander Darwall, lead portfolio manager, European Opportunities Trust, picks three European companies where he'd put his money
-
How to harness the power of dividendsDividends went out of style in the pandemic. It’s great to see them back, says Rupert Hargreaves
-
Why Trustpilot is a stock to watch for exposure to the e-commerce marketTrustpilot has built a defensible position in one of the most critical areas of the internet: the infrastructure of trust, says Jamie Ward
-
Tetragon Financial: An exotic investment trust producing stellar returnsTetragon Financial has performed very well, but it won't appeal to most investors – there are clear reasons for the huge discount, says Rupert Hargreaves
-
How to capitalise on the pessimism around Britain's stock marketOpinion There was little in the Budget to prop up Britain's stock market, but opportunities are hiding in plain sight. Investors should take advantage while they can
-
London claims victory in the Brexit warsOpinion JPMorgan Chase's decision to build a new headquarters in London is a huge vote of confidence and a sign that the City will remain Europe's key financial hub
-
The consequences of the Autumn Budget – and what it means for the UK economyOpinion A directionless and floundering government has ducked the hard choices at the Autumn Budget, says Simon Wilson
-
Reinventing the high street – how to invest in the retailers driving the changeThe high street brands that can make shopping and leisure an enjoyable experience will thrive, says Maryam Cockar
