Income investors beware: dividends are set for the chop

The rush of firms suspending payouts is a reminder why solid income portfolios need more than high yields.

Investors who rely on dividends for income will have been receiving bad news in the last couple of weeks. As companies struggle to conserve cash to see them through the coronavirus crisis, many have suspended future dividends. Some have even taken the drastic step of cancelling dividends that had already been declared.

Most significantly, banks such as Barclays, HSBC, Lloyds and RBS agreed this week to scrap around £15bn in dividends until at least the end of this year in order to preserve capital and bolster their ability to lend to struggling individuals and businesses. Financial stocks account for around 25% of the FTSE UK Equity Income index, while other major contributors include miners (15%) and oil and gas (8%), where payouts could be vulnerable as a result of drastic falls in commodity prices. Many steadier business will also be badly affected by the shutdown of the economy. So it seems certain that UK dividends will fall by far more than they did during the global financial crisis, when they were about 13% lower in both 2009 and 2010 than in 2008.

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Cris Sholto Heaton

Cris Sholto Heaton is an investment analyst and writer who has been contributing to MoneyWeek since 2006 and was managing editor of the magazine between 2016 and 2018. He is especially interested in international investing, believing many investors still focus too much on their home markets and that it pays to take advantage of all the opportunities the world offers. He often writes about Asian equities, international income and global asset allocation.

Cris began his career in financial services consultancy at PwC and Lane Clark & Peacock, before an abrupt change of direction into oil, gas and energy at Petroleum Economist and Platts and subsequently into investment research and writing. In addition to his articles for MoneyWeek, he also works with a number of asset managers, consultancies and financial information providers.

He holds the Chartered Financial Analyst designation and the Investment Management Certificate, as well as degrees in finance and mathematics. He has also studied acting, film-making and photography, and strongly suspects that an awareness of what makes a compelling story is just as important for understanding markets as any amount of qualifications.