“Copper is flashing a recession warning,” says Myra Saefong in Barron’s. Prices have slumped to their lowest level since November 2020. They slumped by 22% in the second quarter, the metal’s worst quarterly performance since 2011. Considered an “economic bellwether” because of its role in everything from electronics to construction, copper’s tumble suggests a “sour outlook” for the world economy.
It’s not just copper, says Albert Edwards in a Société Générale note. Other “industrial commodity prices are in virtual freefall”, with aluminium and nickel down 19.6% and 28.5% respectively since their May peaks. “This is not so much a canary in the coal mine as… the recessionary gorilla charging towards us out of the mist.”
Metals markets have been rescued in the past by Chinese stimulus, but don’t count on it this time, says Bloomberg News. While Beijing is supporting local government spending on infrastructure, the help is not on the scale of the 2008 or 2020 stimulus. The debt-ridden property sector – a key source of demand for metals – remains fragile, while new infrastructure projects in “cloud computing, 5G networks and data centres are less materials-intensive than the... bridges and high-speed railways” that characterised previous stimulus cycles.
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Optimists see metals’ slide as an early victory over inflation, but the win might not last. The selloff may reflect financial speculators reining in their bets, rather than a rebalancing of the underlying physical market. JPMorgan Chase reports that “in the week to 1 July about $16bn flowed out of commodity futures markets, bringing the total for the year so far to a record $145bn”. But in the physical market, “commodity stocks remain 19% below historical average at a time of tight production”.
-
Could falling interest rates be the motivation savers need to invest?Chancellor Rachel Reeves wants to spark an investment revolution. Falling interest rates could help her in her mission.
-
8 of the best properties for sale with shooting estatesThe best properties for sale with shooting estates – from an estate in a designated Dark Sky area in Ayrshire, Scotland, to a hunting estate in Tuscany with a wild boar, mouflon, deer and hare shoot
-
Halifax: House price slump continues as prices slide for the sixth consecutive monthUK house prices fell again in September as buyers returned, but the slowdown was not as fast as anticipated, latest Halifax data shows. Where are house prices falling the most?
-
Rents hit a record high - but is the opportunity for buy-to-let investors still strong?UK rent prices have hit a record high with the average hitting over £1,200 a month says Rightmove. Are there still opportunities in buy-to-let?
-
Pension savers turn to gold investmentsInvestors are racing to buy gold to protect their pensions from a stock market correction and high inflation, experts say
-
Where to find the best returns from student accommodationStudent accommodation can be a lucrative investment if you know where to look.
-
The world’s best bargain stocksSearching for bargain stocks with Alec Cutler of the Orbis Global Balanced Fund, who tells Andrew Van Sickle which sectors are being overlooked.
-
Revealed: the cheapest cities to own a home in BritainNew research reveals the cheapest cities to own a home, taking account of mortgage payments, utility bills and council tax
-
UK recession: How to protect your portfolioAs the UK recession is confirmed, we look at ways to protect your wealth.
-
Buy-to-let returns fall 59% amid higher mortgage ratesBuy-to-let returns are slumping as the cost of borrowing spirals.
