Hopes of a vaccine lifted oil markets earlier this week, with Brent crude jumping to $43 a barrel. Bulls were also cheered by the Saudi energy minister, who suggested that the so-called Opec+ output deal could be in for a “tweak”. The current deal sees major oil producers such as Russia and Saudi Arabia hold output 7.7 million barrels per day (mbpd) below 2018 levels. That figure is due to fall to 5.7mbpd in January, but the latest wave of lockdowns will hit global demand, prompting speculation that the output curbs could be extended deep into next year. Global crude oil demand was roughly 100mbpd last year, but the pandemic has reduced the world’s appetite for the fuel by about 10%.
The oil outlook remains shaky, says Julian Lee on Bloomberg. The demand slump extends even to places that have dealt with the virus well: Japanese imports from the main Persian Gulf producers are still down by half compared with pre-pandemic levels. On the supply side, US output is proving robust. America is China’s third biggest oil-supplier after Russia and Saudi Arabia. The second wave of lockdowns will hold oil markets “in check” over the coming months, says Stephen Innes of Axi. But the prospect of a vaccine is a “game-changer for the oil complex”. With Opec+ signalling that it is ready to do “whatever it takes” to support prices, oil prices have two “planks” to rest on while they wait out the winter.
MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
-
In the money: how my trading tips fared in 2025The success of the open positions offset losses on closed ones, says Matthew Partridge
-
Vietnamese stocks are charging ahead – here's what to buyVietnam has been upgraded from a frontier to an emerging market. It remains a promising pick, says David Prosser
-
In the money: how my trading tips fared in 2025
The success of the open positions offset losses on closed ones, says Matthew Partridge
-
Vietnamese stocks are charging ahead – what to buy
Vietnam has been upgraded from a frontier to an emerging market. It remains a promising pick, says David Prosser
-
'Investors will reap long-term rewards from being bullish on UK equities'Opinion Nick Train, portfolio manager, Finsbury Growth & Income Trust, highlights three UK equities where he’d put his money
-
The graphene revolution is progressing slowly but surely – how to investEnthusiasts thought the discovery that graphene, a form of carbon, could be extracted from graphite would change the world. They might've been early, not wrong.
-
A strong year for dividend hero Murray International – can it continue its winning streak?Murray International has been the best-performing global equity trust over the past 12 months, says Max King
-
The shape of yields to comeCentral banks are likely to buy up short-term bonds to keep debt costs down for governments
-
The sad decline of investment clubs – and what comes nextOpinion Financial regulation and rising costs are killing off investment clubs that once used to be an enjoyable hobby, says David Prosser
-
How to profit from the UK leisure sector in 2026The UK leisure sector had a straitened few years but now have cash in the bank and are ready to splurge. The sector is best placed to profit
