Can the oil-price rally continue?
The oil price has risen by 120% since its April low. But that is encouraging producers to increase supply.
When US oil futures plunged below zero in April the country’s shale industry was knocked sideways. More than 100,000 US energy jobs have disappeared since the pandemic began and rig counts fell by 73% in the year to 17 July. A dearth of supply helped Brent crude rally by 120% since the April low. Trading above $43 a barrel this week, oil is still down by 33% this year.
US oil output bottomed out in the second week of June, say Derek Brower and Myles McCormick in the Financial Times, but better prices are now encouraging higher output, with US production up “by 1.2 million barrels a day over the past six weeks”. As Alexandre Ramos-Peon of Rystad Energy puts it: “It’s a slow, slow recovery, but it’s happening”.
America is not the only producer to be boosting supply. A recent deal by oil exporters’ cartel Opec and Russia will see supply curbs gradually eased from August. Saudi Arabia is frustrated that its allies are not honouring promised production cuts, says Jason Tuvey of Capital Economics. During recent negotiations, Riyadh reportedly threatened a repeat of the “price war” that tanked oil prices this spring. As prices recover the incentives for governments to cheat on their quota will only grow, and Saudi Arabia’s willingness to curb its own production in order to support prices will fall. This year’s “oil price war” may be over, but it could prove “a sign of things to come”.
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE

Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Get the latest financial news, insights and expert analysis from our award-winning MoneyWeek team, to help you understand what really matters when it comes to your finances.
Alex is an investment writer who has been contributing to MoneyWeek since 2015. He has been the magazine’s markets editor since 2019.
Alex has a passion for demystifying the often arcane world of finance for a general readership. While financial media tends to focus compulsively on the latest trend, the best opportunities can lie forgotten elsewhere.
He is especially interested in European equities – where his fluent French helps him to cover the continent’s largest bourse – and emerging markets, where his experience living in Beijing, and conversational Chinese, prove useful.
Hailing from Leeds, he studied Philosophy, Politics and Economics at the University of Oxford. He also holds a Master of Public Health from the University of Manchester.
-
Premium Bonds winners: Who won July’s £1 million jackpot?
NS&I has announced some details about the winners in July’s Premium Bonds prize draw. Who won the jackpot, and how can you find out if you got lucky this month?
-
‘Inheritance tax insurance’ enquiries are soaring – but is it worth it?
Premiums for whole of life insurance can run to £5,000 a month to cover a £300,000 inheritance tax bill, with policies costing more the older you take them out.
-
Oil price stays steady as tensions in Middle East boils over
Oil prices surged after Israel's attack on Iran, but the global market for the commodity is forecast to remain well-supplied until 2030
-
The British railway industry is in rude health – here's why investors should jump aboard
The railway industry has bounced back from the devastating impact of the pandemic and is entering a new phase of development – and profitability
-
Infrastructure investing: a haven of stable growth amid market turmoil
From booming construction in emerging markets to digital and green transitions, the infrastructure sector offers security, returns and long-term opportunities
-
The costly myth of “sell in May”
Opinion May 2025's strong returns for US stocks have once again shown that putting too much weight on seasonal patterns will only make investors poorer, says Max King
-
Who’s driving Tesla?
As Elon Musk steps back from government with his eyes on the stars, investors ask if he’s still behind the wheel at his electric-car maker.
-
Investment opportunities in the world of Coca-Cola
There is far more to Coca-Cola than just one giant firm. The companies that bottle and distribute the ubiquitous soft drink are promising investments in their own right.
-
Streaming services are the new magic money tree for investors – but for how long?
Opinion Streaming services are in full bloom and laden with profits, but beware – winter is coming, warns Matthew Lynn
-
'Pension funds shouldn't be pushed into private equity sector'
Opinion The private-equity party is over, so don't push pension funds into the sector, says Merryn Somerset Webb.