The topsy-turvy world of bonds

Germany’s ten-year Bunds yield a princely -0.58%

(Image credit: © iStock)

published 30 October 2020

Stock and bond markets continue to send different signals. US Treasury bond yields plunged earlier this year as investors rushed into the traditional safe-haven asset. Bond yields move inversely to prices, so higher demand means higher bond prices and hence lower yields.

Yet while stocks rallied over the summer, bond yields continued to send alarm signals. The US ten-year Treasury yield, which started the year at about 1.8%, fell to 0.5% over August.

The start of this week saw gloom settle over equity markets, which would normally send bond yields even further south. Yet the US ten-year Treasury yield has barely budged, say Padhraic Garvey, Benjamin Schroeder and Antoine Bouvet of ING. Indeed, trading around 0.8% this week, it has risen since the summer lows.

Subscribe to MoneyWeek

Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE

Get 6 issues free

https://cdn.mos.cms.futurecdn.net/flexiimages/mw70aro6gl1676370748.jpg

Sign up to Money Morning

Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter

US bond movements also reflect the reflation trade (see above), says Randall Forsyth in Barron’s. The prospect of more government debt issuance, coupled with more inflation and growth in the economy, would send bond prices lower and yields higher, especially those with longer maturities.

By contrast, bond yields in Europe remain pinned to the floor, with the German ten-year Bund yielding the princely return of -0.58%. The EU has just sold a ten-year bond at a yield of -0.24%. Corporate debt markets provide the strangest spectacle of all, says Michael Mackenzie, also in the Financial Times. An economic crisis should send yields there surging, but Federal Reserve support has “turned everything on its head”, says Matt King of Citigroup.

Instead of looking at business “fundamentals” investors obsessively watch “central bank liquidity”. That might delay the default pain, but the bill for this year’s corporate “debt binge” will one day come due.

Explore More

Alex is an investment writer who has been contributing to MoneyWeek since 2015. He has been the magazine’s markets editor since 2019.

Alex has a passion for demystifying the often arcane world of finance for a general readership. While financial media tends to focus compulsively on the latest trend, the best opportunities can lie forgotten elsewhere.

He is especially interested in European equities – where his fluent French helps him to cover the continent’s largest bourse – and emerging markets, where his experience living in Beijing, and conversational Chinese, prove useful.

Hailing from Leeds, he studied Philosophy, Politics and Economics at the University of Oxford. He also holds a Master of Public Health from the University of Manchester.