Jeffrey Gundlach: prepare for four more years of Trump

Donald Trump will be re-elected as US president in November, reckons Jeffrey Gundlach, America’s best-known bond investor.

Jeffrey Gundlach, chief executive, DoubleLine Capital

Polls showing Trump's rival Joe Biden with a commanding lead are “very, very squishy right now because of the highly toxic political environment in which we live”, he told a webcast for investors in DoubleLine’s funds, reports ThinkAdvisor. Many conservatives “have lied about their support for Donald Trump… maybe people aren’t really getting the right read from polls”.

Gundlach – who predicted Trump’s victory in 2016 – was also critical of Biden’s choice of Kamala Harris (pictured) as his vice-presidential candidate on the basis that “she’s a little too charismatic … a little too dominant with her personality”– qualities that might normally be seen as an asset in a politician.

Regardless of who wins, Gundlach isn’t optimistic about US Treasury bonds, largely due to the soaring US budget deficit, which is “getting almost surreal”. He believes that that the gold price “will ultimately go much higher because… the US dollar is going to go much lower” (gold is mostly traded in dollars, so a weak dollar means higher gold prices). However, that’s a longer-term bet; for now, the dollar’s weakness “is probably nearly over” and so  gold has reached its short-term high. The stockmarket rally is “getting long in the tooth” and stocks could even retest March’s lows. But investors should still hold some stocks as protection against higher inflation, together with gold and a substantial amount in cash as a hedge against deflation.

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