Bad data is driving fear of a second wave of Covid-19

The recent spike in Covid-19 “cases” is very different to the original outbreak, says James Ferguson of MacroStrategy Partnership. The government needs to calm down.

Covid swab test © Getty Images
We’re putting too much faith in these tests
(Image credit: © Getty Images)

Covid-19 cases are on the rise again, particularly amongst the young. The “rule of six” is now nationwide. Localised lockdowns are in place up north. And even martial-law-style 10pm curfews are being considered. So-called “pillar 2” cases from the wider community – where “cases” are a misnomer for “positive” test results – have doubled in the last two weeks from about 2% to roughly 4%. Is this the long-awaited second wave? And once all these infected young northerners visit their grandfathers (ill, elderly men are particularly vulnerable), will it turn into an increase in deaths too?

This seems to be what our politicians fear – hence their aggressive response. However they are making some major mistakes. One is the policy direction itself – the correct response is not a lockdown of the general population, but shielding of the vulnerable. The other is in misinterpreting the data. “Positives” are not the same as “cases” (the latter require both symptoms and a doctor’s diagnosis).

Subscribe to MoneyWeek

Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE

Get 6 issues free
https://cdn.mos.cms.futurecdn.net/flexiimages/mw70aro6gl1676370748.jpg

Sign up to Money Morning

Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter

Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter

Sign up

James Ferguson qualified with an MA (Hons) in economics from Edinburgh University in 1985. For the last 21 years he has had a high-powered career in institutional stock broking, specialising in equities, working for Nomura, Robert Fleming, SBC Warburg, Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein and Mitsubishi Securities.