There is little consensus about which way the economy is heading as we embark on the second half of the year, says Lisa Beilfuss for Barron’s. Analysts have spent the last few months arguing over whether we are poised for a “V”, “U” or “W-shaped” recovery. More inventive types talk of “a Nike swoosh” and “a reverse square-root sign”.
Major global economies have been recovering from lockdowns more quickly than expected, says Jonathan Allum in The Blah! newsletter. US employment remains in a hole, but news that a better-than-expected 4.8 million jobs returned in June suggests that things are on the way back to normal. Not to overdo the “horticultural metaphors”, but we have our “green shoots”, the question now is whether they will manage to grow into “fully fledged plants”.
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