The centrist François Bayrou, 73, has been appointed prime minister of France after a historic vote of no-confidence put an end to the “shortlived” minority coalition of Michel Barnier, says The Guardian. Barnier’s government fell after he invoked special powers to push through his 2025 austerity budget without a vote in parliament. Taking office, Bayou, a political heavyweight who helped Emmanuel Macron win the presidential election in 2017 and who has run for president three times himself, acknowledged that he had a mountain to climb. He received a “baptism of fire”, with Moody’s downgrading France’s credit rating within hours of his appointment, says CNBC. Moody’s blamed political instability for the downgrade, saying it would make it hard for France to tackle its deficit. Investors’ unease has already pushed France’s ten-year borrowing costs above 3% this year.
Bayrou, founder and leader of the MoDem party, commands respect across the political spectrum, but the National Assembly remains “crippled by the same three-bloc impasse”, says Hugh Schofield on the BBC. The opposing three blocs of the 577-seat lower house are: Marine Le Pen’s far-right party, the National Rally, Macron’s pro-business allies, and the New Popular Front, a left-wing alliance that ranges from the Socialists to the far-left France Unbowed led by Jean-Luc Melenchon. Before Bayrou draws up a new budget, he will need to form a new government, the composition of which will depend on whether he manages to build bridges. Macron has been holding talks with parties from the centre-left and centre-right to broaden the outgoing minority conservative-centrist coalition, but so far all he has got from the Socialists, who hold 66 seats, is a “vague commitment” not to vote Bayrou out immediately, says The Economist.
Will François Bayrou's government mark a shift to the left?
Macron’s obdurate refusal to appoint a prime minister from the left, despite the New Popular Front winning the most seats in last summer’s snap elections, stems from fear of having his “legacy” unpicked, says John Keiger in The Telegraph. With “tiresome predictability”, France Unbowed has already said that it will table a motion of no confidence when Bayrou’s new government is appointed. Although Le Pen is unlikely to join him this time, Bayrou will be keen to reach a truce with the Socialists and Greens in order to “rob the two opposition blocs of the majority needed to win a no-confidence vote”. In terms of the budget, the “risk of things going wrong is high”. France is deeply wedded to its “social-security provisions and generous state allowances that have cushioned the population against economic reality and left the country with an onerous tax burden”. Many still resent Macron for raising the pension age from 62 to 64, even though it is “still among the lowest in Europe”.
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Bayrou’s “bridge-building instincts” are a bonus, say Leila Abboud and Ian Johnston in the Financial Times. He already enjoys reasonable relations with both sides. However, he has also been described as “having a Pyrenean-sized ego” and, according to veteran French commentator Alain Duhamel, will “not hesitate to exert his power”. He will “not be easily disciplined”, says Duhamel, and will “tilt policy more towards the left”.
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