China’s economy faces a triple shock

Workers in a Chinese steel factory — Electricity outages have hampered industries such as steelmaking

(Image credit: © FRED DUFOUR/AFP via Getty Images)

This inflation surge is definitely not transitory

Can anything stop rising inflation? asks Daniel Moss on Bloomberg. How about a Chinese slowdown? The world’s second-biggest economy grew at a record 18.3% year-on-year in the first quarter of the year but has slowed sharply. GDP rose by an annual 4.9% in the third quarter, the slowest pace in a year and down from the 7.9% rate recorded between April and June, says Katie Silver for the BBC. Soaring commodity prices have seen many provinces impose electricity rationing, which is weighing on industries such as cement, steel and aluminium smelting.

China’s slowdown has been “more pronounced than anticipated”, says Moss. Lower Chinese demand could cool the rally in many commodity prices. It won’t necessarily be deflationary, however: closed factories will reduce the global supply of essential goods. Factory-gate prices, a measure of the prices manufacturers charge wholesalers, grew at their “fastest pace since records began in 1996” last month, says Strydom.

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China has been contending with a “triple shock” from power cuts, the pandemic and the property slowdown, says The Economist. A Covid-19 “cluster that began in Nanjing in July, prompted strict, localised lockdowns [and] airlines were operating at less than half their full capacity in August”. Year-on-year growth could slow further “to 4% or below” in the final quarter of this year.

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Alex is an investment writer who has been contributing to MoneyWeek since 2015. He has been the magazine’s markets editor since 2019.

Alex has a passion for demystifying the often arcane world of finance for a general readership. While financial media tends to focus compulsively on the latest trend, the best opportunities can lie forgotten elsewhere.

He is especially interested in European equities – where his fluent French helps him to cover the continent’s largest bourse – and emerging markets, where his experience living in Beijing, and conversational Chinese, prove useful.

Hailing from Leeds, he studied Philosophy, Politics and Economics at the University of Oxford. He also holds a Master of Public Health from the University of Manchester.