Lead has been the best performer in the metals complex this year, gaining 130% to a 16-month high in September. A key driver has been supply disruptions culminating in China's suspension of some of its lead-smelting capacity after allegations of lead poisoning.
But concern over supply looks overdone for now, given that demand has slid and stocks in warehouses are at a six-year high. Despite that, the long-term outlook for lead is positive, says BNP Paribas Fortis. China is now "pivotal" to the global supply of refined lead; its share of production has risen to 40%.
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