Lead has been the best performer in the metals complex this year, gaining 130% to a 16-month high in September. A key driver has been supply disruptions culminating in China's suspension of some of its lead-smelting capacity after allegations of lead poisoning.
But concern over supply looks overdone for now, given that demand has slid and stocks in warehouses are at a six-year high. Despite that, the long-term outlook for lead is positive, says BNP Paribas Fortis. China is now "pivotal" to the global supply of refined lead; its share of production has risen to 40%.
"China has taken on this dirty and dangerous industry shunned by other countries". As it "inevitably" gradually tightens environmental standards, higher production costs are likely to filter nito higher lead prices.
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Meanwhile, the pipeline of mine production set to come onstream after 2010 is thin, and lead-acid battery demand from the automobile sector 70% of total demand is set to rocket as emerging markets' consumption of cars and lorries grows to Western levels.
"The days of lead being a cheap metal" look over. RBS expects the annual average lead price to hit a new record high of $2,750 a tonne in 2013.
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