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Bonds advanced after the attack on Saudi Arabia, with investors ignoring the potential for a rise in inflation. This chart also suggests they are being complacent.
As James Ferguson of MacroStrategy Partnership points out, there is a close link between the annual percentage change in the price of an equally-weighted basket of oil and gold prices and the annual rate of America's consumer price inflation (CPI); the basket leads CPI by a month, so where it goes inflation follows.
Interestingly, MacroStrategy Partnership's research suggests that this basket of oil and gold is far more closely correlated to inflation than wage growth, which is widely considered a leading indicator of consumer price rises.
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Get the latest financial news, insights and expert analysis from our award-winning MoneyWeek team, to help you understand what really matters when it comes to your finances.
MoneyWeek is written by a team of experienced and award-winning journalists, plus expert columnists. As well as daily digital news and features, MoneyWeek also publishes a weekly magazine, covering investing and personal finance. From share tips, pensions, gold to practical investment tips - we provide a round-up to help you make money and keep it.
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