"If Boris Johnson's name is ever linked to a political idea, it is likely to be cakeism' the notion that it is possible to govern without making hard choices," says Gideon Rachman in the Financial Times. Johnson's remark about being pro having cake and "pro eating it too" defines his approach to Brexit.
Its feasibility will be tested when, "as seems inevitable", he becomes prime minister after winning the Conservative Party leadership election. His "cakeist campaign" insists he can secure a better Brexit deal within months, and that even if he can't, a no-deal Brexit would be "vanishingly inexpensive if you prepare",a view vigorously contested by experts.
The pound slumped following a hustings on Monday night, at which both Johnson and his rival, Jeremy Hunt, ruled out any compromise on the issue of the Irish backstop, including a time limitor unilateral exit clause, increasingthe likelihood of a no-deal Brexit on31 October, say George Parker,
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Jim Brunsden and Arthur Beesley, also in the FT. The "central flaw" of Johnson's plan is that Brussels has already said that it will not countenance a deal that does not include the Irish backstop.
A risky strategy
On the other hand, there are plenty of Tory MPs who are vehemently opposed to a no-deal Brexit, says Jessica Elgot in The Guardian, and some may be prepared to vote against their government, even if it means losing the whip, being deselected and bringing down their own administration. Johnson's working majority in the Commons is also likely to be reduced to three if the Liberal Democrats win the Brecon and Radnorshire by-election on 1 August.
It is still "theoretically possible" to avoid a no-deal Brexit on 31 October, says The Times, but even Dominic Grieve, the former attorney general who is "leading backbench efforts to block no deal", has conceded that Parliament is running out of legislative options. A vote of no confidence may be the only answer, but time is running short. The last date for Parliament to trigger a new election before 31 October is 3 September. The only way that even a vote of no confidence could stop a no-deal Brexit beyond this date would be for Parliament to "coalesce behind a cross-party national government under a different prime minister".
Given the "deep divisions" between, and within, the Tory and Labour parties, this seems unlikely. A general election may happen even in the event of no deal. With Johnson in power and Brexit delivered, Nigel Farage's Brexit Party would be neutered, the Lib Dems no longer able to campaign for Remain, and the opposition party would be "engulfed" in civil war over Jeremy Corbyn. Johnson may fancy his chances. "The country should brace itself."
As for a no-deal Brexit, if it does happen, Johnson's hopes that it will awaken the "Blitz spirit" and unite the country may well prove misguided, says Parker. If it is forced through Parliament, half the country will see Johnson, not the EU, as the "villain". Angry demonstrations are likely to follow, and Johnson could end up as a "British version of Marie Antoinette a French queen, infamous for an ill-advised remark about cake, who met a sticky end".
-
The top stocks in the FTSE 100After a year of strong returns for the UK’s flagship index, which FTSE 100 stocks have posted the best performance in 2024?
-
A junior ISA could turn your child’s pocket money into thousands of poundsPersuading your child to put their pocket money in a junior ISA might be difficult, but the pennies could quickly grow into pounds – and teach them a valuable lesson about money
