Betting on politics: the European elections

As expected, Labour won the Newport West by-election, so my tip that you should back Labour to win paid off. The bad news was that it got only 39.3% of the vote, which meant that my tip on Labour getting into the 40s narrowly failed. The next major political event is the upcoming European elections. While they could still be cancelled if an exit deal is passed by parliament, Ladbrokes has stated that it will cancel any bets and return all money to punters in that scenario.

Ladbrokes is offering a market on the party that wins most seats, with Labour at 11/10 (47.6%), followed by Nigel Farage's (pictured) Brexit Party at 2/1 (33%), the Conservatives at 5/1 (16.7%), and Change UK and Ukip at 12/1 (7.7%) each. You can also bet on the Conservative vote share, with less than 10% at 12/1 (7.7%), 10%-20% at evens (50%), 20%-30% at 11/10 (47.6%), and 30%+ at 16/1 (5.8%).

Finally, there is the Labour vote share, with less than 10% at 50/1 (1.9%), 10%-20% at 5/2 (28.5%), 20%-30% at 8/11 (57.8%), 30%-40% at 4/1 (2) and 40%+ at 20/1 (5%).

I'm unsure about the Conservative share of the vote, because I don't know how many of their voters will switch over to Ukip or Farage's latest venture. However, my guess is that Labour is very likely to get between 20% and 40% of the vote. This means it is a good idea to bet on Labour getting between 20% and 30% and 30%-40%, for combined odds of 78%. If you want to weight your bet correctly, put £7.43 of a £10 betting unit on 20%-30% and £2.57 on it getting between 30% and 40%.