As expected, Labour won the Newport West by-election, so my tip that you should back Labour to win paid off. The bad news was that it got only 39.3% of the vote, which meant that my tip on Labour getting into the 40s narrowly failed. The next major political event is the upcoming European elections. While they could still be cancelled if an exit deal is passed by parliament, Ladbrokes has stated that it will cancel any bets and return all money to punters in that scenario.
Ladbrokes is offering a market on the party that wins most seats, with Labour at 11/10 (47.6%), followed by Nigel Farage's (pictured) Brexit Party at 2/1 (33%), the Conservatives at 5/1 (16.7%), and Change UK and Ukip at 12/1 (7.7%) each. You can also bet on the Conservative vote share, with less than 10% at 12/1 (7.7%), 10%-20% at evens (50%), 20%-30% at 11/10 (47.6%), and 30%+ at 16/1 (5.8%).
Finally, there is the Labour vote share, with less than 10% at 50/1 (1.9%), 10%-20% at 5/2 (28.5%), 20%-30% at 8/11 (57.8%), 30%-40% at 4/1 (2) and 40%+ at 20/1 (5%).
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
I'm unsure about the Conservative share of the vote, because I don't know how many of their voters will switch over to Ukip or Farage's latest venture. However, my guess is that Labour is very likely to get between 20% and 40% of the vote. This means it is a good idea to bet on Labour getting between 20% and 30% and 30%-40%, for combined odds of 78%. If you want to weight your bet correctly, put £7.43 of a £10 betting unit on 20%-30% and £2.57 on it getting between 30% and 40%.
-
HMRC savings tax crackdown: More workers to pay tax directly from their wagesBanks and building societies will be required to obtain National Insurance numbers from savers to make it easier for HMRC to tax those who breach their personal savings allowance
-
It’s time to start backing the UK stock marketThe UK stock market has been languishing for decades. But the tide is turning and smart investors should buy in now
-
Boris Johnson and the irresistible rise of “cakeism”Features But will dabblers in it meet with a sticky end? Emily Hohler reports.
-
Farage victory would tip the balanceFeatures A Brexit Party win may concentrate minds in parliament and break the stalemate. Emily Hohler reports.
-
Labour defeats a Remainer rebellionFeatures Jeremy Corbyn has faced down a challenge spearheaded by his deputy, Tom Watson, for Labour to signal its backing for a second Brexit referendum.
-
The Brexit Party: a potent political threatFeatures There has been a surge in support for Nigel Farage’s new venture. Emily Hohler reports.
-
May seeks a compromise on BrexitFeatures The PM turns her back on the eurosceptics and reaches out to Jeremy Corbyn. Emily Hohler reports.
-
Labour does the splitsFeatures Seven Labour centrists and Remainers have jumped Corbyn’s far-left Brexit ship. Emily Hohler reports.
-
Stop building on England’s green and pleasant landFeatures Theresa May recently announced a major overhaul to the National Planning Policy Framework to “deliver the homes the country needs”. If only it were that simple, says Emily Hohler.
-
The crisis in higher educationFeatures Bloated fat cats at the top, baying mobs closing down meetings at the bottom, and striking dons in between – it seems our universities are in deep trouble. What’s going on? Stuart Watkins explains.
