Advertisement
Features

Betting on politics: the European elections

With the European elections coming up, Matthew Partridge weighs the odds to see which party is the favourite to grab the most seats – providing they go ahead in Britain.

942-Farage-634
Nigel Farage: on the march

As expected, Labour won the Newport West by-election, so my tip that you should back Labour to win paid off. The bad news was that it got only 39.3% of the vote, which meant that my tip on Labour getting into the 40s narrowly failed. The next major political event is the upcoming European elections. While they could still be cancelled if an exit deal is passed by parliament, Ladbrokes has stated that it will cancel any bets and return all money to punters in that scenario.

Advertisement - Article continues below

Ladbrokes is offering a market on the party that wins most seats, with Labour at 11/10 (47.6%), followed by Nigel Farage's (pictured) Brexit Party at 2/1 (33%), the Conservatives at 5/1 (16.7%), and Change UK and Ukip at 12/1 (7.7%) each. You can also bet on the Conservative vote share, with less than 10% at 12/1 (7.7%), 10%-20% at evens (50%), 20%-30% at 11/10 (47.6%), and 30%+ at 16/1 (5.8%).

Finally, there is the Labour vote share, with less than 10% at 50/1 (1.9%), 10%-20% at 5/2 (28.5%), 20%-30% at 8/11 (57.8%), 30%-40% at 4/1 (2) and 40%+ at 20/1 (5%).

I'm unsure about the Conservative share of the vote, because I don't know how many of their voters will switch over to Ukip or Farage's latest venture. However, my guess is that Labour is very likely to get between 20% and 40% of the vote. This means it is a good idea to bet on Labour getting between 20% and 30% and 30%-40%, for combined odds of 78%. If you want to weight your bet correctly, put £7.43 of a £10 betting unit on 20%-30% and £2.57 on it getting between 30% and 40%.

Advertisement
Advertisement

Recommended

How the fear of death affects our investment processes
Investment strategy

How the fear of death affects our investment processes

Many of our investment decisions are driven by one simple fact: the knowledge that, one day, we will be dead. Here, in an extract from his new book, J…
2 Jan 2020
The good investments of the 2010s – and the bad
Stockmarkets

The good investments of the 2010s – and the bad

John Stepek takes a look back on which investments did well and which did badly in the decade that’s about to come to an end.
26 Dec 2019
How long can the good times roll?
Economy

How long can the good times roll?

Despite all the doom and gloom that has dominated our headlines for most of 2019, Britain and most of the rest of the developing world is currently en…
19 Dec 2019
Beyond the Brexit talk, the British economy isn’t doing too badly
Economy

Beyond the Brexit talk, the British economy isn’t doing too badly

The political Brexit pantomime aside, Britain is in pretty good shape. With near-record employment, strong wage growth and modest inflation, there is …
17 Oct 2019

Most Popular

House price crash: UK property prices are falling – so where next?
Property

House price crash: UK property prices are falling – so where next?

With UK property prices falling for the first time in eight years, are we about to see a house price crash? John Stepek looks at what’s behind the sli…
2 Jul 2020
How “support” and “resistance” can help you spot trading opportunities
Sponsored

How “support” and “resistance” can help you spot trading opportunities

Technical analysis can help traders manage risk and decide where to enter and exit a trade. One simple form of technical analysis is the concept of “s…
6 Jul 2020
A first-half home run for investment trusts
Sponsored

A first-half home run for investment trusts

The investment trust sector has seen some extraordinary performance in the first half of this year. Max King looks at what's behind it, and asks: is i…
7 Jul 2020