As expected, Labour won the Newport West by-election, so my tip that you should back Labour to win paid off. The bad news was that it got only 39.3% of the vote, which meant that my tip on Labour getting into the 40s narrowly failed. The next major political event is the upcoming European elections. While they could still be cancelled if an exit deal is passed by parliament, Ladbrokes has stated that it will cancel any bets and return all money to punters in that scenario.
Ladbrokes is offering a market on the party that wins most seats, with Labour at 11/10 (47.6%), followed by Nigel Farage's (pictured) Brexit Party at 2/1 (33%), the Conservatives at 5/1 (16.7%), and Change UK and Ukip at 12/1 (7.7%) each. You can also bet on the Conservative vote share, with less than 10% at 12/1 (7.7%), 10%-20% at evens (50%), 20%-30% at 11/10 (47.6%), and 30%+ at 16/1 (5.8%).
Finally, there is the Labour vote share, with less than 10% at 50/1 (1.9%), 10%-20% at 5/2 (28.5%), 20%-30% at 8/11 (57.8%), 30%-40% at 4/1 (2) and 40%+ at 20/1 (5%).
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
I'm unsure about the Conservative share of the vote, because I don't know how many of their voters will switch over to Ukip or Farage's latest venture. However, my guess is that Labour is very likely to get between 20% and 40% of the vote. This means it is a good idea to bet on Labour getting between 20% and 30% and 30%-40%, for combined odds of 78%. If you want to weight your bet correctly, put £7.43 of a £10 betting unit on 20%-30% and £2.57 on it getting between 30% and 40%.
-
Divorced? Simple rules to stop your ex claiming inheritance on your estateDivorces are back at pre-pandemic levels leaving lawyers urging separated couples to get their affairs watertight to avoid any nasty disputes after death
-
Is now a good time to invest in Europe?European stocks are undervalued, but experts believe that defence and infrastructure spending could see renewed growth
-
It’s been 16 years, but the UK economy finally has a chanceOpinion The UK economy has been dealing with one crisis after another since 2007. Policymakers now have a chance to fix some of the underlying problems holding back growth.
-
The “plan for growth”: what Truss and Kwarteng got rightOpinion The Tories’ “plan for growth” has got off to a bad start, but their reforms can still transform Britain
-
Kwasi Kwarteng U-turns on top tax rate decisionNews Kwasi Kwarteng has U-turned on his top tax rate reduction announced in his mini-Budget at the end of September.
-
Investors should get ready for a political revolutionOpinion Liz Truss will beat Rishi Sunak, cut taxes, and then shake up the Bank of England, says Helen Thomas
-
Who will be the next prime minister and what are the bookies’ odds?News The Tory leadership contest is in its final phase. Matthew Partridge reports on the contest and looks at who the bookies’ favourite is.
-
The public may have reached its limit for tax risesEditor's letter The UK tax burden is now at a 70-year high. And, while there may be some reason to hold off on cuts right now, taxes are too high because the state tries to do too much. Perhaps it should do less, says Merryn Somerset Webb.
-
Boris Johnson's exit leaves Britain with a towering in-trayBriefings Britain’s economic problems are rapidly piling up after the last few years of drift and chaos. What should we do first?
-
Here’s what the Spring Statement means for your moneyAnalysis David Prosser looks into the details of Rishi Sunak's "jam tomorrow" Spring Statement and explains just what it means for you and your money.
