Betting on politics: Some good bets on the US mid-terms

The mid-term elections in the US may be drawing closer, says Matthew Partridge – but their are still some good bets to be had.

Dr Matthew Partridge
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published
in Features

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Elizabeth Warren: a good bet
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Paddy Power has scaled back its political bets a bit, but it is still offering markets on all the Senate races in the upcoming elections. What's more, some of its odds are quite generous. For example, it has the Democrats at 1/10 (90.9%) to win in Massachusetts. While this may seem short odds, you have to remember that this is one of the "bluest" states in America, and the incumbent is possible presidential candidate Elizabeth Warren. Go ahead and fill your boots.

Another contest that should be pretty straightforward for the Democrats is Maryland, a state where Trump got a third of the vote in 2016, and no Republican presidential candidate has triumphed in the last 30 years. Polls show that the incumbent Ben Cardin has got a relatively good approval rating, while the Republican candidate is an unknown university professor. So the odds on the Democrats should be a lot shorter than the 1/10 (90.9%) that Paddy Power is offering. Again, you should snap this bet up.

Virginia is a little more complicated. From 1968 until the2008 election it voted solidly Republican in presidential elections. However, population growth in northern Virginia and the Washington DC suburbs means that it is increasingly leaning towards the Democrats. In any case, incumbent Tim Kaine leads Trump fanatic Republican Corey Stewart in the polls by nearly 20 percentage points. This means that Paddy Power's 1/7 (87.5%) is actually pretty good value.

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Dr Matthew Partridge
Dr Matthew Partridge
Shares editor, MoneyWeek

Matthew graduated from the University of Durham in 2004; he then gained an MSc, followed by a PhD at the London School of Economics.

He has previously written for a wide range of publications, including the Guardian and the Economist, and also helped to run a newsletter on terrorism. He has spent time at Lehman Brothers, Citigroup and the consultancy Lombard Street Research.

Matthew is the author of Superinvestors: Lessons from the greatest investors in history, published by Harriman House, which has been translated into several languages. His second book, Investing Explained: The Accessible Guide to Building an Investment Portfolio, is published by Kogan Page.

As senior writer, he writes the shares and politics & economics pages, as well as weekly Blowing It and Great Frauds in History columns He also writes a fortnightly reviews page and trading tips, as well as regular cover stories and multi-page investment focus features.

Follow Matthew on Twitter: @DrMatthewPartri

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