Betting on politics: a political contest Down Under

883-betting-634 — The Labor party has nominated Ged Kearney

With Aussie flu rampaging around the UK, it's only appropriate that our first tip this week should be a political contest Down Under. The Batman by-election is yet another vote prompted by the revelation that many well-known MPs had dual New Zealand citizenship (making them ineligible for parliament). The twist is here that incumbent MP David Feeney has decided not to stand, sceptical that he can retain a seat that he only held onto in 2016 by the skin of his teeth.

Instead the Labor party has nominated Ged Kearney, in the hope that she can appeal to voters who have switched to the Green party due to anger over the controversial Adani mining project. Paddy Power isn't convinced and has her at 3/1 (25%) to win the seat, compared with 2/9 (81.8%) for the Green Party candidate. The Liberal candidate is at 25/1 (3.8%), reflecting the fact that the party got less than 20% of first preferences in 2016. I think the Labor candidate represents value, so I'm suggesting you bet on her.

Returning home, Jacob Rees-Mogg now seems to be front-runner to succeed Theresa May as Conservative leader. Smarkets have him at 5.1 to be the next leader (19.6%). The next favourite is Boris Johnson at 8.2 (12.1%), with Amber Rudd at 11.5 (8.6%). I think markets are wildly overestimating Mogg's chances, given there are plenty of others with leadership ambitions, and polls suggest that his appeal, even with the Conservative membership, is limited.

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So I'd suggest that you lay Mogg at odds of 5.5, equivalent to betting on him not being leader at odds of 1.22 (82.1%). As previously stated, to lay a candidate on Smarkets, you click on the blue box (not the green box) next to their name and specify the stake that you will accept. In this case you should offer £1.81 per £10 betting unit.