A false dawn for stocks

The markets may have rallied this week, but all of the telling economic indicators are still looking negative.

After dipping in June, equity markets bounced strongly in July. The S&P 500 index gained 7%, the best monthly return in a year. The FTSE 100 is more than 10% up on its late June level, while pan-European indices have hit three-month highs. Solid bank earnings buoyed most markets early this week.

It seems investors are determined to look on the bright side and have been brushing off negative data. They took a relaxed view of Europe's bank stress tests, while the slowdown in China is already being treated as evidence that the authorities have managed to engineer a soft landing, says David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff. But the "divergence between Wall Street and Main Street" has been most striking when it comes to the American backdrop.

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