Betting on politics: next week's election

Matthew Partridge looks ahead to next week to see from a betting perspective how the election is likely to pan out.

Dr Matthew Partridge
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published
in Features

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Not much hope for Labour
(Image credit: 2017 Getty Images)

It's easy to forget that when the current UK election campaign was called, Labour was sitting at around 25% in the polls, the Tories were expected to get half the popular vote, and people were talking about the Lib Dems regaining most of the seats that they had lost at the last election. Fast-forward to the present, and YouGov is talking about a hung parliament, with Labour actually gaining seats.

As much as I'd love to believe this, I still think Labour will do badly. As pollster Deborah Mattinson of consultancy BritainThinks notes, there are many "shy Tories" those who dislike Theresa May's policies and won't back them in public, but will vote Conservative in the privacy of the ballot box, thanks to their greater dislike of Jeremy Corbyn. It's also worth noting that Lord Ashcroft's projections have Labour getting 180 seats more than initial estimates, but still a Tory landslide.

However, one trend that will be borne out by the polls is the underperformance of the Lib Dems. While I'm tempted to tip a punt on Nick Clegg losing his seat in Sheffield Hallam, I'll leave that to braver souls. Instead, I'll go with Labour's Neil Coyle being re-elected in Bermondsey and Old Southwark, with Paddy Power at 4/6 (60%). Labour are doing relatively better in London than elsewhere, while any personal vote that former MP Simon Hughes may have had is long gone, thanks to policies pursued under the coalition government.

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Either way, I think Corbyn will go within the next 12 months, though perhaps not voluntarily. My guess is that his successor will be a woman, probably Yvette Cooper. I've also heard people mention Lisa Nandy. So, I'll tip Cooper at digital odds of 5.5 (18.2%) with Betfair, and Nandy at traditional odds of 14/1 (6.7%), with Betfred. That gives combined odds of 24.8%. In this case, I'd place £7.32 on Cooper and £2.68 on Nandy (per £10 bet).

Dr Matthew Partridge
Dr Matthew Partridge
Shares editor, MoneyWeek

Matthew graduated from the University of Durham in 2004; he then gained an MSc, followed by a PhD at the London School of Economics.

He has previously written for a wide range of publications, including the Guardian and the Economist, and also helped to run a newsletter on terrorism. He has spent time at Lehman Brothers, Citigroup and the consultancy Lombard Street Research.

Matthew is the author of Superinvestors: Lessons from the greatest investors in history, published by Harriman House, which has been translated into several languages. His second book, Investing Explained: The Accessible Guide to Building an Investment Portfolio, is published by Kogan Page.

As senior writer, he writes the shares and politics & economics pages, as well as weekly Blowing It and Great Frauds in History columns He also writes a fortnightly reviews page and trading tips, as well as regular cover stories and multi-page investment focus features.

Follow Matthew on Twitter: @DrMatthewPartri

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