Betting on politics: Stoke-on-Trent by-election

Matthew Partridge weighs up the odds of betting on the Stoke-on Trent by-election caused by the resignation of Labour MP Tristram Hunt.

Dr Matthew Partridge
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Tristram Hunt's resignation sparked the by-election in Stoke-on-Trent
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Tristram Hunt's decision to stand down as MP for Stoke-on-Trent Central has prompted a lot of soul-searching in the national press and caused a stir in the betting markets. While Ladbrokes have Labour as the 4/5 favourites to win (55%), Ukip are in second place on 9/4 (30%). Even more surprisingly, the Liberal Democrats are at 7/1 (12.5%), with the Tories trailing in at 10/1 (9%).

It's true that Corbyn's disastrous leadership has kneecapped Labour. Nevertheless, this has been a safe Labour seat since it was formed in 1950. Even during the days of Michael Foot, Labour got 48% of the vote, and as late as 2005 Labour was pulling in over 50%. Of course, Labour only got 38% at the last election, but the Oldham West and Royton by-election, where Labour shocked everyone by increasing their majority, demonstrated that the Kippers have a natural ceiling in the North.

Similarly, anyone who thinks that the Liberal Democrats have half a chance here frankly needs their head examined. With 65% of the voters in the area voting to Leave, this is about as far from Richmond as you can get. Indeed, their best performance in the seat was in 2005 when they got 21.5%.

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In fact, if Labour is under threat it's going to be from the Tories, who will be anxious to get ahead of Ukip (Ukip narrowly beat the Tories into third place at the last election).

Overall, I'd advise you to split your money between Labour and the Tories. The best odds are 5/6 on Labour with Betfred and 11/1 from William Hill on the Tories. This gives you combined odds of 62.8% (compared with 64.6% with Ladbrokes). As I've said before, my trick with split bets is to weigh them according to the odds. So, if you normally bet £10 per unit, I'd put £8.67 on Labour and £1.23 on the Tories. That way you win the same amount of money whichever party prevails.

Dr Matthew Partridge
Dr Matthew Partridge
Shares editor, MoneyWeek

Matthew graduated from the University of Durham in 2004; he then gained an MSc, followed by a PhD at the London School of Economics.

He has previously written for a wide range of publications, including the Guardian and the Economist, and also helped to run a newsletter on terrorism. He has spent time at Lehman Brothers, Citigroup and the consultancy Lombard Street Research.

Matthew is the author of Superinvestors: Lessons from the greatest investors in history, published by Harriman House, which has been translated into several languages. His second book, Investing Explained: The Accessible Guide to Building an Investment Portfolio, is published by Kogan Page.

As senior writer, he writes the shares and politics & economics pages, as well as weekly Blowing It and Great Frauds in History columns He also writes a fortnightly reviews page and trading tips, as well as regular cover stories and multi-page investment focus features.

Follow Matthew on Twitter: @DrMatthewPartri

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