Market fear and loathing
From oil to Chinese stocks, panic is spreading through the markets, says Merryn Somerset Webb.
Flick through this week's issue and you will see nothing but market fear and loathing. We look at commodities, for example. Oil is down to around $50 a barrel. Gold is at a five-year low. Copper is as cheap as it was in 2008. Mining stocks have been slammed.
We also tell you about the junk-bond market (bonds issued by low-quality firms with higher-than-usual interest payments). This isn't one many MoneyWeek readers will be actively involved in and isn't particularly well understood (see John Stepek's piece on the market). But if you were involved, you'd know that some prices are off by 50%.
Then there is China: the market is down around 25% since its peak and fell 8% in one day alone this week, despite government efforts to prop it up. Things aren't too good in Western markets either: the FTSE 100 is down 8% since April. There is the odd silver lining: mining sector yields haven't been this high since the 1990s and we still think that China is more likely to be in the midst of a structural bull market by 2016 than stuck in a bear.
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Even so, there isn't an optimist out there who doesn't have to admit that the constant abrupt movement (more down than up) in today's markets is a bit scary. So what's up? It's pretty simple. Nobody knows what is really going on.
The signals from the real economy are confounding. There are signs of rising wages and good growth in parts of the US and UK. But China is slowing fast and as a result, so are commodity-producing countries everywhere from Latin America to Australia. Global trade numbers are troubling too down in four of the first five months of the year and Europe is as fragile as ever.
So while the US and UK know it's time to have a go at normalising interest rates, the rest of the world economy is saying they may have to reverse any rises pretty quickly. The fear is also about the dawning realisation that we might be stuck with the lack of global growth.
We've left our central banks to cover the cracks in our world. And they just can't do it. Quantitative easing and zero interest rates haven't given us prosperity. They might, as James Grant notes in the FT, have pushed up stock and bond prices. But without GDP and profit growth, those prices can't stay up indefinitely. Central banks can't do magic. What you are seeing in today's markets is the world beginning to understand that.
That said, there's always somewhere to invest. In this week's issue of MoneyWeek, David Stevenson looks at a market that actually looks undervalued (rare and special in today's world) Vietnam. And for some firms in the UK with a better-than-average chance of strong growth, David Thornton looks at firms with high levels of employee ownership and explains why employee power, unlike central bank power, is good for capitalism and for companies.
Sign up to Money Morning
Our team, led by award winning editors, is dedicated to delivering you the top news, analysis, and guides to help you manage your money, grow your investments and build wealth.
Merryn Somerset Webb started her career in Tokyo at public broadcaster NHK before becoming a Japanese equity broker at what was then Warburgs. She went on to work at SBC and UBS without moving from her desk in Kamiyacho (it was the age of mergers).
After five years in Japan she returned to work in the UK at Paribas. This soon became BNP Paribas. Again, no desk move was required. On leaving the City, Merryn helped The Week magazine with its City pages before becoming the launch editor of MoneyWeek in 2000 and taking on columns first in the Sunday Times and then in 2009 in the Financial Times
Twenty years on, MoneyWeek is the best-selling financial magazine in the UK. Merryn was its Editor in Chief until 2022. She is now a senior columnist at Bloomberg and host of the Merryn Talks Money podcast - but still writes for Moneyweek monthly.
Merryn is also is a non executive director of two investment trusts – BlackRock Throgmorton, and the Murray Income Investment Trust.
-
House prices rise 2.9% – will the recovery continue?
House prices grew by 2.9% on an annual basis in September. Will Budget policies and ‘higher-for-longer’ rates dent the recovery?
By Katie Williams Published
-
Nvidia earnings: what to expect
Nvidia announces earnings after market close on 20 November. What should investors expect from the semiconductor giant?
By Dan McEvoy Published
-
The dangers of derivatives as the “Goldilocks era” ends
Editor's letter This is no longer a benign environment for investors, says Andrew Van Sickle. But – as the recent pension-fund derivatives blow-up shows – not everybody seems to have grasped that.
By Andrew Van Sickle Published
-
What to do as the age of cheap money and overpriced equities ends
Editor's letter The age of cheap money, overpriced equities and negative interest rates is over. The great bond bull market is over. All this means you will be losing money, says Merryn Somerset Webb. What can you do to protect yourself?
By Merryn Somerset Webb Published
-
Investors are bullish – but be very careful
Editor's letter Many investors are buying the dip, convinced the latest upswing is the start of a new bull market. The odds are that it’s not, says Andrew Van Sickle. The bear has unfinished business.
By Andrew Van Sickle Published
-
The MoneyWeek approach to investing
Editor's letter At MoneyWeek, our aim is simple: to give you intelligent and enjoyable commentary on the most important financial stories, and tell you how to profit from them. So how do we do that?
By Merryn Somerset Webb Published
-
Celebrity bitcoin ads echo the subprime mortgage crisis
Editor's letter A wave of ads featuring celebrities punting crypto to the masses are reminiscent of how low income Americans were encouraged to take on loans they couldn’t afford, says Merryn Somerset Webb.
By Merryn Somerset Webb Published
-
Will the UK's property slowdown turn into a house-price crash?
Editor's letter As the cost-of-living crisis intensifies and interest rate rise, it is hard to see reasons for UK house prices to keep rising, says Merryn Somerset Webb.
By Merryn Somerset Webb Published
-
What sardines can teach investors about today's markets
Editor's letter A California tale of “eating sardines” and “trading sardines” can help us divide investments into speculative and real, says Merryn Somerset Webb. Something that's very useful when looking at today’s markets.
By Merryn Somerset Webb Published
-
The market finally seems to be getting it
Editor's letter Reality checks are coming fast to the markets, says Merryn Somerset Webb – with even 2022’s safe havens beginning to reflect recession worries.
By Merryn Somerset Webb Published