Can the Dax rally last?

published 6 June 2014

German blue chips have almost tripled since the bear market bottomed in March 2009, with the Dax index now at a new record peak around 10,000. But the air is getting thinner, as Wirtschaftswoche puts it.

Technical analysts have noted that market momentum has ebbed in recent weeks and stocks have become more vulnerable to pullbacks. Things look worrying from a fundamental perspective too.

Like its major global counterparts, the Dax is less a domestic than a global barometer. Most of the 30 firms in the index are large exporters and around 75% of all the firms' sales are made outside Germany.

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While 69% of goods went to European countries last year, emerging markets, especially China, are becoming increasingly important. China is Germany's fifth-biggest export destination and about 15% of earnings are China-related.

That means the DAX would be vulnerable if there was a financialcrisis in China something that many pundits expect.

The Ukraine crisis is another concern. Germany will suffer if the West imposes tighter sanctions on Russia andRussia retaliates. A sanctions spiralcould cause German exports to Russiato slump by 50% by 2015, reckon analysts at DW Bank.

What's more, the German stock market is one of the world's more cyclical markets, and that makes it more vulnerable than most to a bout of global or European risk-aversion.

All this could easily be shrugged offif valuations were cheap but they aren't. The index looks pricey on 18 times2013 earnings. The forward price-to-earnings ratio is 13, but this figureis based on unrealistically highearnings estimates that ignore the unspectacular growth in the world economy.

Investors who have enjoyed some or all of the Dax's roaring bullrun should take some profits.

Andrew is the editor of MoneyWeek magazine. He grew up in Vienna and studied at the University of St Andrews, where he gained a first-class MA in geography & international relations.

After graduating he began to contribute to the foreign page of The Week and soon afterwards joined MoneyWeek at its inception in October 2000. He helped Merryn Somerset Webb establish it as Britain’s best-selling financial magazine, contributing to every section of the publication and specialising in macroeconomics and stockmarkets, before going part-time.

His freelance projects have included a 2009 relaunch of The Pharma Letter, where he covered corporate news and political developments in the German pharmaceuticals market for two years, and a multiyear stint as deputy editor of the Barclays account at Redwood, a marketing agency.

Andrew has been editing MoneyWeek since 2018, and continues to specialise in investment and news in German-speaking countries owing to his fluent command of the language.