HSBC's highly rated equity strategy team dusted off its crystal ball in a recent report to work out what might be the next big thing in technology. In particular it focused on disruptive technologies': defined as "any innovation that is liable to revolutionise an industry and challenge the dominance of its incumbents", with a major focus on the convergence of "telecoms speed, data capacity and network effects".
The analysts warn that "the winners [in a disruptive technology] take many years to emerge and it is well-nigh impossible to identify them early Conversely, the losers tend to be both more obvious, and more obvious at an early stage". Quite.
Spotting the winners in the technology sector early on is incredibly difficult. But at least if you know where to look, you have a better chance of getting on board a trend early. The report pinpoints a long list of potentially disruptive technologies. I've pulled out some highlights here, many of which are developments that the big tech companies mentioned above are benefiting from, or are well-placed to capitalise on.
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The internet of things
Cloud/big data/analytics
Mobile payment and near-field communication
Insurance telematics
Flexible screens
Biosimilars
Stem cells
Fully automated driving
Small mobile telecoms cells: This is all about handling the rapid growth in telecoms traffic. "Diminishing network efficiency gains steer focus towards small cells as a solution to the global mobile data capacity crunch'."
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