Gold slumped to a three-year low recently. In the short-term, the odds of a significant recovery look slim. Demand for paper gold assets, such as exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and futures, has waned. The US Federal Reserve's intention to ease up on money printing implies higher real' (inflation-adjusted) interest rates and a lower risk of inflation in future.
On top of this, the global economy gradually seems to be returning to normal, which reduces the appeal of an asset seen as a safe haven in hard times. And potential demand for gold in Asia has hit another short-term obstacle: India has cracked down on gold imports as part of a drive to lower its current-account deficit.
However, gold is hardly a write-off and not merely because the macroeconomic environment could easily deteriorate again. Another important factor is that demand for paper gold investments will become a less important driver of gold prices in future, says Bank of America Merrill Lynch (BAML), because "higher physical demand from increasingly affluent emerging markets."
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China's demand for gold jewellery, bars and coins, for instance, hit a record in the first quarter of 2013, helped by both the liberalisation of the domestic gold market and inhabitants' growing spending power. By 2016, reckons BAML, the influence of emerging-market consumers could have grown so much that merely a third of current gold investment levels would be consistent with prices of around $2,000 an ounce. Note too that central banks in emerging markets continue to buy.
Given all this, says Capital Economics, there is scope for gold to hit $1,320 by the end of the year and $1,400 by the end of 2014.
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