What’s happening with UK house prices? Latest property forecasts for 2026
With mortgage rates creeping back up and ongoing market volatility, can we expect house prices to slide?
The UK housing market continues to struggle as geopolitical tensions and domestic economic uncertainty play out but now may be a good time to consider how your home is priced if you are trying to sell.
The housing market is currently in what estate agents describe as a summer slowdown, when demand is lower as more people are on holiday.
That means it is important to price your home well to attract demand and also to prepare for the much-hoped-for ‘autumn bounce.’
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It comes as the housing market has been slower than expected so far this year.
At the start of 2026, there was hope among estate agents and surveyors the market was beginning to turn a corner, but tensions in the Middle East and speculation about what a new prime minister could mean for the tax landscape have stifled activity.
The Bank of England has held interest rates at 3.75% since the start of 2026 as it takes a cautionary approach to rising inflation, meaning mortgage rates are unlikely to get significantly cheaper any time soon.
The average two-year fixed rate deal is 5.62% as of 29 July compared with 4.83% as of 27 February, the day before the Middle East tensions first broke out, according to financial data provider Moneyfacts.
Homes are also taking longer to sell than usual, in part due to homeowners overvaluing their properties but also due to lack of demand, according to recent research by Zoopla.
A survey of 2,064 people carried out by the property portal found 44% of homeowners who listed their homes couldn’t sell in the last three years, of which a third (34%) said their property asking price was too high despite believing it was fairly valued beforehand. Meanwhile, 53% of respondents who did sell in the last three years said they had to cut their asking price to attract a buyer.
How much can you now expect to pay for a house?
We look at the latest data from the major house price indices, including Lloyds, Nationwide and the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and Zoopla, as well as Rightmove for asking prices.
Each house price index (HPI) report varies, although the main indices put the average UK house price at roughly between £270,000 and £375,000.
That said, these are UK average prices, and prices can vary dramatically depending on the region and methodology of each HPI.
HM Land Registry UK House Price Index
The most authoritative house price index is HM Land Registry, as its data includes cash purchases as well as homes financed through a mortgage. Data is published on a six-week time lag, making it more retrospective than other house price indices.
According to the latest data from the Land Registry, the average house price is £271,295 as of May 2026, up by 0.3% from April 2026.
Nationwide House Price Index
The most recent Nationwide data shows the average UK house price sits at £277,484 as of June 2026.
Annual house price growth rose 2.2% annually, up from a 1.7% growth rate in May, although prices were broadly flat on a monthly basis, taking into account seasonal effects (activity typically picking up over summer, for example).
Lloyds House Price Index
The latest Lloyds HPI, renamed after it retired the Halifax brand, shows the average UK house price is £299,330 as of June 2026, up 0.2% from £298,812 in May 2026.
Rightmove House Price Index
Unlike Nationwide and Halifax’s HPIs, which are based on the building society and bank’s valuations at the mortgage-approval stage, Rightmove’s HPI is based on asking prices.
According to Rightmove, asking prices fell by 1% in the month to July, taking the average asking price to £372,359.
Zoopla House Price Index
The Zoopla HPI uses sold prices, mortgage valuations and data for agreed sales to calculate house prices for any given month.
According to Zoopla’s latest data, UK house price inflation slowed to 1.3% in June, down from 1.7% in May.
The average UK house price is now £272,800, the property website said.
Zoopla said the summer is a good time to adjust pricing.
Looking at the past three autumns, the share of sellers cutting asking prices by 5% or more consistently peaks in September – the same month sales activity typically recovers from its summer low.
Zoopla warns that homes still sitting at their spring asking price typically miss this autumn “bounce.”
How much confidence is there in the market?
As well as the five main house price indices, the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) also publishes a monthly UK Residential Market Survey.
The survey generates net balance scores between -100 and +100 in response to a series of questions put to its members (estate agents and surveyors) about how the housing market has changed for better or worse.
The latest survey, covering the month of June, reveals members remain negative but the knock-on effects from tensions in the Middle East could be stabilising.
New buyer enquiries received a -29% score, an improvement on the -34% recorded in May.
On agreed sales, RICS members reported a net balance score of -32%, down from -35% in May.
Will house prices rise in 2026 and beyond?
In January, estate agents and economists were relatively optimistic about prospects for UK housing growth in 2026, but now are more subdued.
Economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics believe house prices will rise by just 1% in 2026, after previously forecasting they would rise by 3%.
Estate agents Savills is forecasting a 2% drop this year, while Knight Frank recently suggested there will be more “downward pressure” on prices despite forecasting growth of 1.5% for 2026 earlier in the year.
Similarly, Zoopla has said annual house price inflation was around 1.4% in the first half of the year and is expected to ease towards 1% over the next six months.
Prices are likely to remain more resilient in the North of England and Scotland, while London and the South East are expected to stay flat or see modest falls, the property website said.
