The UK housing market continues to come under pressure due to geopolitical tensions and an abundance of homes for sale.
Mortgage rates have gone up since the US and Israel launched airstrikes on Iran at the end of February.
According to data firm Moneyfacts, the average two-year fixed-rate deal is 5.94% as of 30 September, up from 4.83% on 27 February.
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The property portal Zoopla also said the number of homes for sale is up 5% in the year to August 2026, offering buyers more scope to push prices down.
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Richard Donnell, executive director at Zoopla, said: “The Middle East conflict has pushed up energy prices and mortgage rates, tempering the autumn rebound in housing activity.
“Borrowing costs are likely to remain elevated, with house price inflation drifting towards 0.5% by year-end and annual sales expected to be closer to 1.1 million versus 1.2 million last year.”
How much can you expect to pay for a house?
We look at the latest data from the major house price indices (HPI), including Lloyds, Nationwide and the Office for National Statistics (ONS), as well as data from Zoopla and Rightmove.
Each HPI report varies, although the main indices place the average UK house price roughly between £270,000 and £370,000.
That said, these are UK averages. Prices can vary dramatically depending on the region and methodology of each HPI.
HM Land Registry UK House Price Index
The most authoritative HPI is HM Land Registry, as its data includes cash purchases as well as homes financed through a mortgage. Data is published on a six-week time lag, making it more retrospective than other house price indices.
According to its latest data, the average house price is £272,611 as of July 2026, up 0.7% from £270,677 in June 2026.
Nationwide House Price Index
The most recent Nationwide data puts the average UK house price at £275,465 as of August 2026, down 0.4% from £276,581 in July 2026 when not seasonally-adjusted.
Lloyds House Price Index
The latest Lloyds HPI (renamed after it retired the Halifax brand) shows the average UK house price is £298,468 as of August 2026, down from £299,153 in July 2026.
The lender also said house prices fell on an annual basis for the first time since November 2023.
Rightmove House Price Index
Unlike Nationwide and Halifax’s HPIs, which are based on the building society and bank’s valuations at the mortgage-approval stage, Rightmove’s HPI is based on asking prices.
According to Rightmove, asking prices rose by 0.7% between August 2026 and September 2026, from £364,999 to £367,440.
Zoopla House Price Index
The Zoopla HPI uses sold prices, mortgage valuations and data for agreed sales to calculate house prices for any given month.
Zoopla puts the average UK house price at £273,000 as of August 2026, up marginally from £272,800 in July 2026.
How much confidence is there in the market?
As well as the five main house price indices, the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) also publishes a monthly UK Residential Market Survey.
The survey generates net balance scores between -100 and +100 in response to a series of questions put to its members (estate agents and surveyors) about how the housing market has changed for better or worse.
The latest survey, covering the month of August 2026, reveals estate agents and surveyors are feeling more optimistic than earlier in the year, but a challenging macroeconomic backdrop remains.
The RICS report said future interest rate expectations would likely be a dampener on the sales market.
The new buyer enquiry metric scored -19%, although this was its highest reading since January.
Meanwhile the headline net balance score on the house price metric was -28%, slightly more positive than the -29% score in July 2026 and much improved on the -35% score covering the April 2026 period.
This indicates that estate agents and surveyors believe prospects for UK house prices to rise are improving.
Will house prices rise in 2026 and beyond?
Estate agents, lenders and economists are generally more negative about where UK house prices are going in 2026 and beyond than they were at the start of the year, due to the outbreak of tensions in the Middle East in February 2026.
Economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics previously forecasted UK house prices would rise by 3% in 2026, but now expect them to flatline.
Estate agent Savills is forecasting a 2% drop this year, while Knight Frank’s latest predictions suggest property prices will rise by 1.5% in 2026.
Zoopla has said house price growth will slow to 0.5% by the end of the year, down from a previous prediction of 1%.
Rightmove started the year predicting asking prices would rise by 2% but now expects them to either be flat or to fall by 2%. The property website said this reflects mortgage rate movements, wider economic uncertainty and the potential impact of the forthcoming Budget.
However, the housing market could yet liven up, with September onwards usually busier than the summer months as buyers return from holidays.
