Why US corporate profits aren't as strong as they look

Why are we so negative on equities when corporate earnings are growing far faster than US GDP? For a start, because the statistics don't give a true picture of earnings growth.

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Our more bullish readers sometimes question why we're so negative on equities when corporate profits remain extremely strong. US growth may be turning down, but firms are still doing very well, they point out. Just look at the third-quarter average earnings for the S&P500, which are running at a far stronger than expected +17%, even while US GDP grew just 1.6% in real terms.

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Cris Sholto Heaton

Cris Sholto Heaton is an investment analyst and writer who has been contributing to MoneyWeek since 2006 and was managing editor of the magazine between 2016 and 2018. He is especially interested in international investing, believing many investors still focus too much on their home markets and that it pays to take advantage of all the opportunities the world offers. He often writes about Asian equities, international income and global asset allocation.

Cris began his career in financial services consultancy at PwC and Lane Clark & Peacock, before an abrupt change of direction into oil, gas and energy at Petroleum Economist and Platts and subsequently into investment research and writing. In addition to his articles for MoneyWeek, he also works with a number of asset managers, consultancies and financial information providers.

He holds the Chartered Financial Analyst designation and the Investment Management Certificate, as well as degrees in finance and mathematics. He has also studied acting, film-making and photography, and strongly suspects that an awareness of what makes a compelling story is just as important for understanding markets as any amount of qualifications.