What happens when the ECB stops financing this jig?
The European Central Bank's money printing plan is just a giant Ponzi scheme, says Bengt Saelensminde. It works so long as new money is pouring in. But what happens when it stops?
Here at The Right Side we tackle the issues mainstream media prefers to ignore. No matter how ugly the issue (or perhaps because it looks ugly!), I'll offer an opinion.
I get really interested when I think that I'm getting conned.
Take this con that I'm going to tell you about today
Start your trial of MoneyWeek today
Get unparalleled financial insight, analysis and expert opinion you can profit from.
Sign up for MoneyWeek’s free twice-daily newsletter.
Join more than 165,000 subscribers and keep yourself informed with latest financial news, insights and expert analysis to help you understand what really matters when it comes to your finances.
Join more than 165,000 subscribers and keep yourself informed with latest financial news, insights and expert analysis to help you understand what really matters when it comes to your finances.
Fancy some free money?
News out this week that the ECB has just lent half a trillion euros to European banks may not have come as much of a surprise to the City. In fact, it certainly shouldn't have done.
Mario Draghi, the ECB's new head, has come in with all guns blazing. In December practically the first thing he did was launch an initiative to try to tackle the ever-escalating euro crisis. You've probably heard about the LTRO (Long Term Refinancing Operation). Well, here's how it works:
First the ECB asks a load of banks "Do you want some free money?"... Well, not exactly free. They'll have to pay 1% interest and give the money back in three years' time.
So now a load of shrewd bankers consider their options. Do they take the money and pump it into some investments where they hope to get more than 1%? Or do they say, "Aaah, thanks but no thanks. I don't reckon I'm clever enough to find anywhere to put your cash and make more than 1%".
Well let's see what they did...
When the offer was first made back in December, 523 banks took the ECB up on their generosity. This time round it was nearer 800!
Super Mario and his great big bazooka
The question is: why is Mario Draghi so eager to give money away so cheap? Well, because he's up to his neck in it.
As I see it, Draghi's ECB has got two problems. First, they're the central bank and are ultimately responsible for ensuring European banks are stable. But of course many aren't. Some of Europe's finest are cash-strapped.
And the second problem he's got is that the markets have been shunning the bonds of many eurozone nations. And they are his employer!
This is not a good situation for Mario. And it's not good for the financial system he's supposed to protect.
But Mario's a clever fellow. He was vice-chairman of Goldman Sachs after all. He reckons his LTRO remedy is just the cure that Europe needs. And with just one pump of the bazooka!
Simply lend the money to the banks at 1% remember then let the banks buy up the miserable looking bonds and earn themselves say 5, 6, or 7% (even more on the really dodgy stuff) on their brilliantly masterminded carry trade.
Hey presto! Suddenly investors aren't shunning dodgy Italian, Spanish (etc, etc) bonds. And weyhey the banks can earn 5% or more on billions and billions of freshly minted cash. That way they can earn their way out of trouble.
And on the face of it, the ruse seems to have worked. Here's the chart of European sovereign debt yields over the last few years.
Source: Bloomberg.Track this chart on our bonds page.
When yields go over the black dotted line (7%) there's trouble basically it's an ominous sign that the market is seriously worried about lending to you. As you can see Greece, Portugal and Ireland have been in the danger-zone for ages.
But what was causing the ECB sleepless nights was the fact that Italy and Spain were skirting with the danger-zone.
You see how late last year the red and orange lines were hitting the dreaded black dotted line? Well now look at how yields have come down not just for Spain and Italy, but for Ireland too. Mario's wonder scheme even seems to have arrested the upward-spiralling Greek and Portuguese yields.
So far so good...
This is when it all goes wrong
But I ask you: Have the underlying problems of the peripheral nations been sorted out?
I would say no.
In fact, the ECB's financing initiatives only make the situation worse. I suspect the write-downs Greek bond holders are currently negotiating ('default' in the words of anyone, other than the ECB) will not be the last. I reckon we've got more debt forgiveness negotiations to come with more of the peripherals. The problems haven't been fixed after all. And that means somewhere down the line, the bonds these hopeless banks are currently buying may start to disintegrate.
Remember, these guys are buying the bonds for a carry trade maybe they make 5% a year. But what good is a 5% profit if the value of your bonds get cut in half (or worse, as has been the case with Greece)?
I mean, you take the weakest banks in the world, then you load them up on debt from the dodgiest countries you can find. And you expect things to turn out rosy!
The eurozone has become a giant Ponzi scheme
Like all classic Ponzi schemes, it can only last as long as you keep pumping in new money. The ECB knows this isn't a final solution.
So how do you solve a problem like Mario(s)?
The answer should be clear to any self-respecting Right-Sider. You don't stop the LTRO.... Never!
This Long Term Refinancing Operation is an exercise in can-kicking, the likes of which only a super banker could put together. And you keep on kicking until the can finally disintegrates.
Good luck to all who put their faith in it.
I'm on Tim Price's side with this. This scheme by the ECB is destined for failure. As Tim pointed out in The Price Report a couple of weeks back:
"The ECB creates electronic money. It then uses that money to buy government bonds from eurozone banks. Flush with new money, eurozone banks can then buy more government bonds! If this sounds like a Ponzi scheme designed to rig the market for the prices and yields of eurozone government debt, that's because it is.
"The wrinkle in this scheme is what happens when a eurozone government is so overborrowed and with such a small chance of growing its economy that it defaults on its debts anyway (which looks increasingly likely for Greece, and possibly Portugal)."
This is one of the biggest threats to your wealth in a generation. So you need to take steps to protect yourself.
As for me, I'm continuing to find opportunities where I can. And I'm certainly still building up my precious metal investments. The recent pull back in gold and silver could be a good opportunity to stock up. You can read about ways to buy gold here.
This article is taken from the free investment email The Right side. Sign up to The Right Side here.
Important Information
The Price Report is a regulated product issued by Fleet Street Publications Ltd. Your capital is at risk when you invest in shares, never risk more than you can afford to lose. Please seek independent financial advice if necessary. Fleet Street Publications Ltd. 0207 633 3600.
Your capital is at risk when you invest in shares - you can lose some or all of your money, so never risk more than you can afford to lose. Always seek personal advice if you are unsure about the suitability of any investment. Past performance and forecasts are not reliable indicators of future results. Commissions, fees and other charges can reduce returns from investments. Profits from share dealing are a form of income and subject to taxation. Tax treatment depends on individual circumstances and may be subject to change in the future. Please note that there will be no follow up to recommendations in The Right Side.
Managing Editor: Frank Hemsley. The Right Side is a regulated product issued by Fleet Street Publications Ltd.
Fleet Street Publications Ltd is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. FSA No 115234. https://www.fsa.gov.uk/register/home.do
Join more than 165,000 subscribers and keep yourself informed with the latest financial news, insights and expert analysis to help you understand what really matters when it comes to your finances.
Bengt graduated from Reading University in 1994 and followed up with a master's degree in business economics.
He started stock market investing at the age of 13, and this eventually led to a job in the City of London in 1995. He started on a bond desk at Cantor Fitzgerald and ended up running a desk at stockbroker's Cazenove.
Bengt left the City in 2000 to start up his own import and beauty products business which he still runs today.