Why the biofuels fad can't last

Here's a statistic from Prospect that might surprise you: Indonesia has higher net carbon emissions every year than the US. "We usually assume," say Trevor Fenning and Kevan Gartland in the magazine, "that the countries that consume the greatest amount of fossil fuels make the greatest contribution to global warming. But what really matters is a country's net emissions its total emissions, regardless of origin minus the carbon that is fixed back down to earth again, mainly by plants." The reason Indonesia scores so very badly on this measure comes down to deforestation: trees are being pulled down to make way for agriculture at such speed that within 15 years 90% of the forests of Indonesia are likely to be long gone.

But before you start feeling all shocked about the Indonesians so wantonly jeopardising the future of the planet, stop to think about why the scale of forest clearance has been stepped up quite so much in the last few years. It's all about the biofuels boom. It used to be that all the palm oil produced in Malaysia and in Indonesia was eaten in one form or another, but as anti-oil fever has taken hold and the EU has announced a target that 10% of vehicles should run on biofuels by 2020, demand has soared. All the Indonesians are doing is trying to create the supply to meet that demand.

This will, of course, all end in disaster not only do many analysts think making biofuels uses up more energy than they can then produce, but the evidence of Indonesia points to the absurdity of clearing forest to grow palm oil and then thinking it is some kind of green' product or worse, part of the cure for global warming. Clearly, it is not. I don't know how long the biofuels boom will go on before everyone begins to wonder what they ever saw in it, but for now the concerns should already have made it very clear to even the most optimistic that palm oil, like most of the new forms of energy doing the rounds these days, simply isn't yet a viable alternative to fossil fuels.

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Partly with this in mind, we've had another look at investing in oil this week. The supply and demand dynamics are as tight as they ever were and the majors in the form of Shell and BP are as undeservedly cheap as ever. But rather than repeat ourselves too much on these stories (regular readers will know all about them already), we've had a look at a few alternative ways to invest in the rising oil price buying deepwater rig firms or houses in Kurdistan, perhaps.

Finally, a word on Africa. When we did our cover story on it a few weeks ago, we suggested that one of the best ways to get exposure to the growth across the continent might be to buy shares in Lonrho Africa. The company has now been rebranded as Lonrho' and announced a couple of new deals with, I am told, more on the way. The shares haven't budged since we last wrote about them, but I still think that if you want diversified and pan-African exposure in your portfolio, this stock is the only way to go.