A poor forecast can still turn out well

In spite of your best analysis, markets can still throw up surprises. John C Burford explains why that needn't be a disaster.

Today, I'm going to continue with the theme of Elliott wave theory and how it provides you with a roadmap which the market is likely to follow.

Of course forecasting, even with this method, still remains an uncertain art/science. Markets can always throw up surprises, sometimes after very careful analysis that later proves inaccurate.

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(Contracts of GBP 62,500)Row 0 - Cell 1 Row 0 - Cell 2 Row 0 - Cell 3 Open interest: 230,333
Commitments
71,16839,4133,098114,382168,710188,648211,22141,68519,112
Changes from 05/06/14 (Change in open interest: -10,931)
-12,626-3,7351206,207-3,760-6,299-7,375-4,632-3,556
Percent of open in terest for each category of traders
30.917.11.349.773.281.991.718.18.3
Number of traders in each category (Total traders: 119)
40291431347672Row 8 - Cell 7 Row 8 - Cell 8

John is is a British-born lapsed PhD physicist, who previously worked for Nasa on the Mars exploration team. He is a former commodity trading advisor with the US Commodities Futures Trading Commission, and worked in a boutique futures house in California in the 1980s.

 

He was a partner in one of the first futures newsletter advisory services, based in Washington DC, specialising in pork bellies and currencies. John is primarily a chart-reading trader, having cut his trading teeth in the days before PCs.

 

As well as his work in the financial world, he has launched, run and sold several 'real' businesses producing 'real' products.