Can Nvidia’s results defy the doubters?

Bubble concerns linger despite S&P 500 strength

Nvidia’s results will be a stern test of the resilience of the AI market’s ongoing bull run.

According to Tom Stevenson, investment director at Fidelity International, Nvidia’s earnings call “will be closely scrutinised for signs that the artificial intelligence boom might be running out of steam.

“Tech stocks, fuelled by investor enthusiasm for AI, have pushed the S&P 500 9% higher so far this year, building on the strong returns in 2023 and 2024,” adds Stevenson. “But recently concerns about the high valuations attached to anything AI-related have seemed to puncture the bubble.”

How much will Nvidia’s China revenue rebound?

The big talking point following Nvidia’s results last quarter was the $4.5 billion hit the company took thanks to US export controls on AI chip exports to China.

“Investors will be laser-focused on the resumption of China sales and forward guidance, seeking clarity on just how much Chinese revenue is back in play,” said Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.

Nvidia and rival AMD reached a revenue sharing agreement with the US government, revealed earlier in August, that will see both granted export licenses in exchange for 15% of their revenue from China.

It seems unlikely, though, that this will fully restore the hole that was missing from last quarter’s results.

“Our adjusted NVDA numbers anticipate only about $1 billion - $1.5 billion in quarterly incremental revenue this year from China,” said Matt Bryson, managing director, equity research at Wedbush Securities. Bryson anticipates that China revenue will then ramp up in 2026, but that for now the numbers will be “well below the $8B NVDA believed it would have generated in Q2”.

What do analysts expect from Nvidia’s results?

As always, the expectations for Nvidia are sky-high leading into its earnings. The challenge as far as anyone watching Nvidia’s share price moves in the aftermath is concerned is that not only does it need to beat analysts’ expectations, but often it needs to beat them by a lot, in order for the stock to rise, as investors have become accustomed to Nvidia’s results exceeding expectations.

Here, though, are the headline expectations according to analysts polled by FactSet and LSEG.

The LSEG numbers imply a 53% year-on-year increase in revenue and a 49% rise in profits.

There will also be other aspects like Nvidia’s outlook and commentary from management around the key business opportunities and threats (such as the state of play with China exports) that could shape how Nvidia’s stock responds following its earnings release.

When does Nvidia announce its results?

Nvidia will announce results for the second quarter (Q2) of its 2026 financial year tomorrow (27 August) after US markets close – that is, any time from 9pm onwards, BST.

Nvidia’s earnings call is scheduled for 2pm PT, or 10pm BST. The results will be released within the hour-long gap between market close and the start of the earnings call. Nvidia’s shares will still be traded during the earnings call, with after-hours trading running until as late as 8pm ET (1am BST).

Depending on the results, there could be significant volatility in Nvidia’s stock price while the earnings call is ongoing.

Good afternoon, and welcome to our rolling coverage of Nvidia’s (NASDAQ:NVDA) upcoming earning release.

Nvidia’s results have become a major event in the stock market calendar. The world’s most valuable company is a major driver of S&P 500 moves; it accounts for more than 7.6% of the index. What is good for Nvidia is, in a very real sense, good for the global stock market.

So when reports emerged that Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI and as such one of the AI industry’s leading lights, thinks that AI is a “bubble”, it wasn’t just Nvidia that suffered. The S&P 500 fell 1.2%, led by Nvidia shedding 3.9%, between 18 and 21 August.

While both the index and Nvidia’s share price have since recovered, all eyes are (as always) on Nvidia and its CEO Jensen Huang to produce a set of results that can reassure nervy investors that the technological revolution the company has triggered is still running strong.