Nvidia results live: shares fall despite earnings beat

Good afternoon, and welcome to our rolling coverage of Nvidia’s (NASDAQ:NVDA) upcoming earning release.

Nvidia’s results have become a major event in the stock market calendar. The world’s most valuable company is a major driver of S&P 500 moves; it accounts for more than 7.6% of the index. What is good for Nvidia is, in a very real sense, good for the global stock market.

So when reports emerged that Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI and as such one of the AI industry’s leading lights, thinks that AI is a “bubble”, it wasn’t just Nvidia that suffered. The S&P 500 fell 1.2%, led by Nvidia shedding 3.9%, between 18 and 21 August.

While both the index and Nvidia’s share price have since recovered, all eyes are (as always) on Nvidia and its CEO Jensen Huang to produce a set of results that can reassure nervy investors that the technological revolution the company has triggered is still running strong.

When does Nvidia announce its results?

Nvidia will announce results for the second quarter (Q2) of its 2026 financial year tomorrow (27 August) after US markets close – that is, any time from 9pm onwards, BST.

Nvidia’s earnings call is scheduled for 2pm PT, or 10pm BST. The results will be released within the hour-long gap between market close and the start of the earnings call. Nvidia’s shares will still be traded during the earnings call, with after-hours trading running until as late as 8pm ET (1am BST).

Depending on the results, there could be significant volatility in Nvidia’s stock price while the earnings call is ongoing.

What do analysts expect from Nvidia’s results?

As always, the expectations for Nvidia are sky-high leading into its earnings. The challenge as far as anyone watching Nvidia’s share price moves in the aftermath is concerned is that not only does it need to beat analysts’ expectations, but often it needs to beat them by a lot, in order for the stock to rise, as investors have become accustomed to Nvidia’s results exceeding expectations.

Here, though, are the headline expectations according to analysts polled by FactSet and LSEG.

The LSEG numbers imply a 53% year-on-year increase in revenue and a 49% rise in profits.

There will also be other aspects like Nvidia’s outlook and commentary from management around the key business opportunities and threats (such as the state of play with China exports) that could shape how Nvidia’s stock responds following its earnings release.

How much will Nvidia’s China revenue rebound?

The big talking point following Nvidia’s results last quarter was the $4.5 billion hit the company took thanks to US export controls on AI chip exports to China.

“Investors will be laser-focused on the resumption of China sales and forward guidance, seeking clarity on just how much Chinese revenue is back in play,” said Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.

Nvidia and rival AMD reached a revenue sharing agreement with the US government, revealed earlier in August, that will see both granted export licenses in exchange for 15% of their revenue from China.

It seems unlikely, though, that this will fully restore the hole that was missing from last quarter’s results.

“Our adjusted NVDA numbers anticipate only about $1 billion - $1.5 billion in quarterly incremental revenue this year from China,” said Matt Bryson, managing director, equity research at Wedbush Securities. Bryson anticipates that China revenue will then ramp up in 2026, but that for now the numbers will be “well below the $8B NVDA believed it would have generated in Q2”.

Bubble concerns linger despite S&P 500 strength

Nvidia’s results will be a stern test of the resilience of the AI market’s ongoing bull run.

According to Tom Stevenson, investment director at Fidelity International, Nvidia’s earnings call “will be closely scrutinised for signs that the artificial intelligence boom might be running out of steam.

“Tech stocks, fuelled by investor enthusiasm for AI, have pushed the S&P 500 9% higher so far this year, building on the strong returns in 2023 and 2024,” adds Stevenson. “But recently concerns about the high valuations attached to anything AI-related have seemed to puncture the bubble.”

Nvidia's shares gain in penultimate session before earnings

Nvidia's shares are gaining strength in the run-in to tomorrow's results announcement. The stock is up around 1% so far today, having gained 1.1% during yesterday's session.

That's everything from us for today, but join us again tomorrow for more analysis and preview of Nvidia's earnings release.

Nvidia shares staging a recovery following last week's decline

Good morning, and welcome back to live coverage ahead of Nvidia's upcoming earnings release.

Nvidia shares gained 1.1% during yesterday's session, bringing the company's share price close to its level before last week's declines.

Follow us throughout the day for live updates and analysis ahead of Nvidia's results this evenig.

Nvidia launches new robotics supercomputer

Nvidia's results week got off to a positive start on Monday when the company announced Jetson Thor, its latest supercomputer powered by its Blackwell generation chips, to power physical AI and robotics.

Jetson Thor boasts 7.5x higher AI compute than Nvidia's previous robotics platform AGX Orin, with 128GB of memory. A developer kit for one of the "robot brains" costs $3,499, according to CNBC.

In June, Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang described robotics as one of Nvidia's two largest growth opportunities (alongside AI), "representing a multitrillion-dollar growth opportunity".

Why are AI stocks under pressure?

While Nvidia's shares have been rallying over recent days they were dented last week following a wave of pessimism around the AI boom's staying power.

We saw Sam Altman, CEO of OpenAI, describe the AI market as a bubble the week before. Then, last week, researchers from MIT published a report saying that despite $30-40 billion having been spent by businesses on generative AI, 95% are yet to see a return.

That's a problem for Nvidia largely because it trades at forty times its projected earnings (and nearly 60 times its profits for the last 12 months). To justify these margins, it has to keep growing its revenue and profits for many years to come.

But if the generative AI boom doesn't deliver for businesses, there is no guarantee that demand for its chips, which at present comfortably outstrips supply, will endure.

How resilient is demand for Nvidia’s chips?

While there have been various causes for pessimism regarding the AI boom’s staying power over the last week or two, there is no reason to believe that Nvidia’s sales are under any real threat any time soon.

Dan Ives, head of global technology research at Wedbush Securities, says that his research suggests that demand for the company’s GPUs is currently running at ten times supply.

“AI is being driven by a handful of US big tech players spending almost $350 billion on capex this year,” says Ives. He also adds that enterprises and governments around the world are upping their spend, which ought to further catalyse demand. Nvidia’s last earnings release was accompanied by news that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia was partnering with Nvidia to deliver up to 500 megawatts’ worth of capacity for AI factories in the nation.

Much of the capex that has already been announced by Magnificent 7 stocks this quarter “is set to flow straight to Nvidia”, says Josh Gilbert, market analyst at eToro. “That bodes well not only for this week’s earnings, but also for the company’s outlook in the quarters ahead.

“Nvidia is in a highly enviable position as the go-to hardware manufacturer, and that’s not likely to change anytime soon,” Gilbert adds.

Nvidia’s revenue growth curve

It is almost impossible for a company to maintain explosive growth rates indefinitely, and the signs are that Nvidia’s revenue growth is slowing down.

Having routinely tripled its revenue year-over-year during the height of the generative AI boom, Nvidia’s expected revenue for tonight’s results would amount to a little over 50% growth from the equivalent period last year.

This is already priced in, but any indication that Nvidia’s growth rates could be slowing faster than expected could prompt a negative reaction from the markets.

“Nvidia may be the market’s heartbeat, but that comes with the expectation of perfection,” says Josh Gilbert, market analyst at eToro. “Even the smallest disappointment could spark outsized volatility across broader markets, not just Nvidia shares.”

Diversifying beyond Nvidia

As several experts have pointed out, Nvidia’s results matter because the company accounts for such a huge chunk of the stock market. Its status as the bellwether for the AI boom, which is the most influential trend in the world at present, also means its results will have a ripple effect across the entire market.

Nvidia is held by nine out of ten AI and big data funds globally, according to Kenneth Lamont, principal at Morningstar.

“Nvidia’s elevated volatility – unusual for a company of its size – reflects both its position at the forefront of a highly uncertain technological rollout and its hypersensitivity to shifts in growth assumptions underpinning that technology,” says Lamont.

“Investors in AI can smooth their journey by spreading exposure across the broader AI value chain,” Lamont adds. Given the elevated valuations and huge spending from some of the world’s largest tech companies, “some of the best opportunities may lie downstream, in companies best positioned to harness increasingly powerful and low-cost AI tools to improve their margins,” he says.

Recap: what do analysts expect from Nvidia’s results?

As a reminder, here are the headline expectations for Nvidia’s earnings release this evening according to analysts polled by FactSet and LSEG:

These numbers imply around 53% revenue growth and 49% increase in profits year-on-year.

Nvidia’s margins could be another focal point tonight beyond indicators of demand trends.

“Profit margins will be a focal point this week, after dipping slightly due to the Blackwell build-out,” said Josh Gilbert, market analyst at eToro. “Last quarter’s heavy investment in ramping up next-gen chips trimmed gross margins by a few percentage points, but with adoption growing, margins are set to rise again.”

BREAKING: Nvidia shares fluctuate at start of final session pre-earnings

US markets are now open. Nvidia's shares opened the session 0.2% higher than yesterday's close, but they have since fallen back to 0.4% below it.

Expect further volatility in Nvidia's stock following this evening's results.

China ramps up domestic competitors for Nvidia’s chips

While China’s AI chip market, which Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has stated could grow to $50 billion in the next two years, remains a key target for Nvidia, the country is looking to reduce its companies’ dependence on Nvidia’s chips.

The FT reports today that chipmakers in China are looking to triple their output next year, with new fabs (chip manufacturing facilities) dedicated to producing chips from Chinese designers like Huawei coming online potentially before the end of the year.

There is also a drive to produce chips that are compatible with the latest specifications from Chinese AI developer DeepSeek, which shook up big tech stocks, particularly Nvidia, earlier this year.

Last week, DeepSeek announced that its models would use a new FP8 data format which would adapt to the next generation of Chinese-produced chips, though no individual supplier was specified.

Read more on DeepSeek and China’s high tech industry here: DeepSeek and China tech.

How significant is Chinese chip competition for Nvidia?

Given the potential size of the AI chip market in China, as well as its near-monopoly on the global market as it stands, it could conceivably pose a significant threat to Nvidia’s prospects if Chinese competitors can match Nvidia’s GPUs for performance.

“Nvidia has enjoyed something of an unchallenged position within the chip supply industry, which investors and commentators have seen reflected in the share price,” says Bola Onifade, portfolio manager at J.P. Morgan-owned Nutmeg. “New challengers in the form of Chinese chipmakers are likely to create pressure on Nvidia.”

But it wouldn’t necessarily undercut Nvidia’s position entirely overnight. There are various factors and regional variations that could come into play.

“The successful adoption of any Chinese chips will be weighed against the potential reaction from the US, whether in the form of further tariffs, outright bans, or indirect pressure applied to other countries,” says Onifade.

This is certainly one to watch as far as Nvidia’s longer term prospects are concerned, but unlikely to move the dial at all during tonight’s results.

Nvidia’s share price since Q1 results

Nvidia’s shares closed 26 August at $181.77. The last time it announced results (28 May), the stock opened the following session at $142.25. In other words, Nvidia’s stock has gained around 28% since its last earnings announcement.

Assuming Nvidia’s earnings match analysts’ forecast of $1.01, they will have risen around 25% over the same period – so slightly lagging the share price increase over this time. This is perhaps justified by the fact that Nvidia’s profits would have been significantly higher last quarter were it not for the dent in China market revenue, which should have been at least partially remedied in the meantime.

Magnificent Seven capex

Much of the optimism around Nvidia in the run-in to these results is based on the amount of spending that other big tech companies have pledged. Nvidia is expected to capture most of what these companies spend on computing infrastructure, given that it is the foremost designer of cutting edge AI chips.

As a recap, here are some of the capex commitments made by other Magnificent Seven companies during this earnings season so far:

^{*Microsoft’s FY 2025 ended last quarter; this figure represents confirmed capex spend throughout that year.}

While Nvidia won’t capture the entirety of this spend, these figures underscore the scale of big tech spending on AI infrastructure, and as such the scope for Nvidia’s revenue to grow.

High expectations mean high risks for Nvidia’s stock

Looking back a little further than Nvidia’s last earnings results, Nvidia’s share price gained 92.7% between 25 April and 26 August, just four months later.

“Investors expect a lot from the company,” says Rob Perrone, investment specialist at Orbis Investments. While investors, he says, can “expect rapid growth, juicy profits, bullish guidance and reassurance about China’s taste for de-tuned chips… all that bullish reassurance may not drive the shares higher.

“It’s an open question whether even great results will be good enough to beat expectations. When expectations are high, so is risk,” Perrone adds.

Guidance could underwhelm in Nvidia’s results

The broad expectation is that Nvidia’s numbers will at least meet, and possibly exceed, expectations at tonight’s results announcement as far as the quarter just ended is concerned.

“Revenues and earnings should easily be beat,” says Paul Meeks, managing director and head of technology research at Freedom Capital. But he highlights the consensus among analysts is that Nvidia will guide for 15% quarter-on-quarter growth – implying around $53 billion in Q3 revenue.

“That’s a very big jump,” says Meeks. “I’m worried that too many analysts on Wall Street have a lot of Chinese revenues baked into that.

“I don’t know if [Nvidia’s revenue from China] is going to be zero, I don’t know if it’s going to be a couple of billion dollars,” he says. “It could be as high as eight billion, but we just don’t know, because we don’t know what president Trump will do between now and then.”

Nvidia tends to be cautious with its guidance, which is why it so often smashes expectations. Given Q3 revenue will hinge on factors outside its control, most notably China-US trade relations, Meeks thinks that the guidance figure Nvidia publishes tonight could underwhelm.

That would likely prompt a negative reaction in Nvidia’s share price. For that reason, Meeks says, “I’m telling folks you should not invest ahead of the [earnings] call. You might get a chance to buy it lower.”

Morningstar: Nvidia’s results and China update could swing the market

Reiterating the point that the status of its Chinese sales will be under the spotlight in Nvidia’s results tonight, Dave Sekera, US market strategist at Morningstar Research Services, said “the market will want details on the status of H2O chips that were being sold to China.”

These chips had been specially designed to circumvent US export restrictions on strategically critical technology to China, but Trump then cut off even these. The ban has since been lifted in exchange for Nvidia sharing 15% of revenues with the US government, but the picture has since been complicated further.

“There are reports that Nvidia is halting production of those chip sets as the Chinese government has concerns about cybersecurity,” says Sekera. “If that report is correct, then we’re going to want to hear a lot more detail from Nvidia as they’re reportedly about to introduce a newer chip, the B30A, that is intended to replace the H2O.”

Nvidia’s results announcement, he says, is “going to be a huge, potentially market-moving event for all AI stocks depending on earnings results, guidance, and what management says during the conference call.”

Morningstar currently forecasts full year earnings of $4.54 per share this year and $6.42 next year, meaning Nvidia stock currently trades at around 40 times this year’s earnings, and 28 times next year’s.

“Those are some pretty lofty multiples, so Nvidia will need to put up the numbers to justify that,” said Sekera.

We're going to pause coverage here for a few hours. Join us from shortly before 9pm, though, when we will bring you live updates as Nvidia's results are released.

Good evening, and welcome back to live coverage. Only minutes to go now until Nvidia's results for the second quarter are released.

As a reminder, analysts expect earnings of $1.01 per share on revenue of $46.05 billion. But much will hinge not just on the top line results, but on Nvidia's forward guidance and updates from the pivotal Chinese market.

Breaking: Nvidia shares close 0.09% down ahead of results

Nvidia’s shares finish the final session before Q2 results just a shade below where they started. But the real volatility will happen soon, once the company’s results are released. Stay tuned as we bring you all the latest.

Now it's just a matter of waiting for Nvidia's results to land. That usually happens within a few minutes of markets closing, though in theory it could be any time before the start of the earnings call at 10pm.

Breaking: Nvidia results beat on earnings and revenue

Nvidia’s results for Q2 are in, and the headline figures are: non-GAAP earnings per share (EPS) of $1.05 and revenue of $46.74 billion.

That’s above expectations on both fronts.

Nvidia stock plummets despite earnings beat

Despite beating on earnings and revenue Nvidia's share price has fallen by more than 3% in after-hours trading following the publication of these results.

It's of course hard to say for certain what has spooked investors, but the CFO commentary mentions that no H20 chips were sold to China-based customers during the second quarter. China sales were expected to be an area of focus ahead of the results, so this could have come as a shock to the market.

Nvidia misses data centre revenue expectations

As well as the big question mark over China sales, Nvidia has also missed expectations on data centre revenue during Q2. This came in at $41.1 billion compared to an expected $41.2 billion.

It may seem an insignificant difference, but this segment is Nvidia's growth engine, the bit that feeds directly into the AI boom that the markets are so hyped about. Investors are used to Nvidia surprising positively here. Any miss is a significant blow.

Nvidia's share price is fluctuating wildly, but still well below its level at close of regular trading.

Nvidia's Q3 revenue guidance

One obvious positive from the results is a very strong revenue guidance for Q3, which is expected to be $54.0 billion, plus or minus 2%. Analysts had been expecting guidance of around $53 billion.

That figure also assumes no H20 shipments to China, so it is to that extent conservative.

Nvidia has also approved $60 billion of share buybacks. All in all these are positive headline figures, but the negative reaction underscores the extent to which Nvidia's pricing leaves very little room for anything but perfection.

As always, an intriguing set of results from Nvidia. We're going to leave live coverage there for now. Join us tomorrow morning for rolling analysis, as we pick through the implications of these results as well as management's comments during the earnings call.

Nvidia shares fall 2.7% after mixed set of results

Good morning, and welcome back to live coverage following Nvidia's Q2 results.

A quick recap of the headlines before we dive into the analysis throughout the day: Nvidia beat on earnings ($1.05 per share versus $1.01 expected) and revenue ($46.74 billion versus $46.05 billion expected).

Nvidia's shares, though, have fallen 2.7% in overnight trading. The company missed on revenue from its key data centre segment, which came in at $41.1 billion versus expectations of $41.2 billion.

Keep following throughout the day as we bring you the latest analysis and reaction.

"Look through the noise": experts hail Nvidia's strong results

On most metrics, Nvidia's results last night marked another strong quarter for the company. In many respects, the share price dip seems an overreaction to a small miss in data centre revenue.

"Nvidia delivered another robust quarter after the bell beating [Wall] Street estimates on the top and bottom-lines again," said Dan Ives, head of global technology research at Wedbush Securities.

"Smart investors will look through the noise," said Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown. "Nvidia has traded flat or down after results in four of the past five quarters, only to do all the heavy lifting after markets have had time to digest the results."

Nvidia's growth curve is flattening

Nvidia's revenue of $46.7 billion marked a 56% increase from a year ago. Lots of companies, particularly large, established ones, would be delighted with these kinds of year-on-year growth rates.

But Deutsche Bank analysts point out that this is well below the rates of growth that investors have become accustomed to: "a clear deceleration from the growth numbers of recent years, when year-on-year sales growth had peaked above 200%", says Jim Reid, global head of macro research and thematic strategy at Deutsche Bank.

"Nvidia’s share price fell in after-hours trading, as their results added to the sense that the explosive growth seen during the AI boom of 2023-24 was decelerating," Reid added.

Nvidia's revenue growth chart

Here's an update to that revenue growth chart for Nvidia in light of last night's results.

Interestingly (and neatly) the $54 billion revenue the company has guided for next quarter implies 54% year-on-year growth, which would be a slight uptick on what the company achieved in Q2. And that figure assumes no China revenue.

On paper, it looks like quite an ambitious forecast, but Nvidia does have a track record of meeting lofty expectations. If China revenue comes into the mix in the meantime, there could be room for a positive surprise.

If not, the chip giant's growth curve does appear to be flattening out.

Markets muted following Nvidia results

Major stock markets have made a muted start this morning. The FTSE 100 opened slightly higher but has fallen by over 0.3% as of approximately 10.45am.

“The main story capturing attention comes from the biggest company in the world, as Nvidia released its latest results last night,” says Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown. “Shares have held onto overnight losses, despite an upbeat earnings call.”

S&P 500 futures are up around 0.05% this morning, suggesting the flagship index will also make a subdued start to the day.

Nvidia’s results highlight the dangers of high expectations

Shares are priced according to market expectations. The higher these reach, the easier it is to disappoint, and expectations around Nvidia have been higher than those for just about any other company for years.

As such, Nvidia’s share price dip following its results “wasn’t about failure”, according to Kate Leaman, chief market analyst at AvaTrade. “Rather, it was about expectations.

“With options traders pricing in a 6% swing, anything short of perfect was going to invite second-guessing,” Leaman added.

It’s a moment for investors to reflect rather than to tear up the playbook, though. “The big picture is still intact. Nvidia’s results support the idea that AI infrastructure is the next long-term growth engine,” says Leaman. “But it also reminded the market of something important: dominance comes with pressure.

“When you're leading the AI revolution, every quarter isn’t just about results, but also about keeping the entire ecosystem believing in your story.”

Wedbush reiterates Nvidia price target following results

Wedbush Securities has reiterated an Outperform rating for Nvidia's stock following last night's results, which Matt Bryson, Matt Bryson, managing director, equity research at the firm describes as "almost ubiquitously positive".

The firm's price target is unchanged at $210, implying 16.9% upside from yesterday's closing price (prior to the results' announcement).

Sovereign AI is a major tailwind for Nvidia

Nvidia’s CFO, Colette Kress, said during the earnings call that followed Nvidia’s results yesterday that the European Union has committed to investing €20 billion into 20 AI factories across France, Germany, Italy and Spain.

“We think Nvidia [will capture] the lion’s share of [this] spend,” said Nancy Tengler, CEO and CIO at Laffer Tengler Investments, “if for no other reason than it is the 'known player,' and countries need to know with whom they're partnering.”

Indeed, according to Kress, Nvidia stands to generate $20 billion in sovereign AI revenue this year.

Nvidia’s revenue results compared to guidance

Historically, Nvidia’s share price has gained following its results in part thanks to management posting conservative revenue guidance when it announces results. This means revenue tends to surprise to the upside.

“Over the last few years, Nvidia management has baked about $2 billion in sales conservatism into every quarterly outlook,” says Matt Bryson, managing director, equity research at Wedbush Securities. “We don't see why the October quarter will prove any different.”

Given that Nvidia guided for $54 billion revenue next quarter, that could translate to $56 billion when the results eventually come around – even without an uplift from the China market. It would imply 20% quarter-over-quarter revenue growth and 60% growth year-over-year, which would be good going for a company of Nvidia’s size.

“I’m pleased with Nvidia’s quarterly results and particularly with the company’s revenue guidance,” said Paul Meeks, managing director and head of technology research at Freedom Capital. “The stock was probably just up too much too fast from its ‘Liberation Day’ bottom ($97) to hold its momentum after this report.”

Meeks says that he wants more clarification on sales to China but that could be dependent on the outcome of trade negotiations between Beijing and Washington DC, which could take months.

“In the meantime, I'm happy to hold Nvidia,” Meeks adds.

Will Nvidia's sales to China return?

Further down the line, perhaps as a result of a comprehensive US-China trade deal, Nvidia might be able to get its exports to China back on track.

"I think we'll eventually get a deal with China," says Paul Meeks, managing director at Freedom Capital Markets. "Even if Nvidia can’t sell, or the Chinese don’t want, the H20 chip, I believe Trump’s broader package will include leeway for Nvidia and AMD to ship next-gen chips.

"These would be the higher-margin products, though slightly “dumbed down” compared to what’s sold in the US."

On that basis, Meeks would consider Nvidia a buy should the stock pull back significantly at any point prior to a deal being struck.

On that note, Nvidia's shares are down 1.2% in today's trading so far - representing an uptick in sentiment following the declines that happened during after-hours trading, as the change is measured from yesterday's close.

Thanks for following along with Nvidia's results here with us. We're going to end rolling coverage for now. Join us again in three months for the next instalment.