Tesla shares fall after-hours, while Alphabet's gain on earnings beat

AI positivity drove Alphabet's shares to new heights, but Musk's "rough quarters" warning saw Tesla's share price slump

Summary

  • Alphabet announced earnings per share (EPS) of $2.31 and revenue of $96.4 billion, beating analyst estimates
  • Tesla’s results showed EPS of $0.40 and revenue of $22.50 billion, down year-over-year, but in line with analyst estimates
  • Tesla shares fell over 4.6% during the earnings call
  • Five other Magnificent Seven companies announce earnings next week. Nvidia announces at the end of August

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Good morning, and welcome to our live coverage of another big tech earnings season.

Two of the industry’s heavy hitters – Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (NYSE:TSM) – got things underway last week, but big tech earnings season truly kicks into gear this week, as the first two of the Magnificent Seven companies announce their results on Wednesday.

Alphabet’s earnings release will be an intriguing glimpse into how the company is navigating the choppy waters that artificial intelligence poses. Is its core Search business holding up in the face of increased AI competition? If not, can growth of its Google Cloud service make up for any shortfall?

Then there is Tesla. Once again, quarterly delivery numbers have disappointed, calling Musk’s much-publicised political activity into question. But Tesla is now a robotics company – didn’t you know? – so updates on this month’s robotaxi launch will be the focus of attention at Tesla’s earnings call.

When are Alphabet’s and Tesla’s earnings releases?

Alphabet’s earnings call is scheduled for 1.30pm Pacific Time (9.30pm in the UK), half an hour after US markets close. Its earnings will likely be published online during that window.

Tesla’s earnings call is scheduled to start at 4.30pm central time – 10.30pm in the UK, so one hour later than Alphabet’s.

TSMC results paint upbeat picture for big tech earnings

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company – often referred to as TSMC for short – is rarely included in any of the big tech groupings, and isn’t anything like as much of a household name, but that is perhaps unfair.

In a nutshell, it is the world’s most advanced manufacturer of computer chips. Nvidia, which is the best-known semiconductor company in the world, doesn’t actually build any of its chips. TSMC does. It also builds chips for Apple, Arm, Qualcomm, AMD and Broadcom.

The Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) fabrication plant in Phoenix, Arizona

(Image credit: Rebecca Noble/Bloomberg via Getty Images)

TSMC announced a 61% increase in profits last week, with revenue rising 39%. Yesterday, the company joined several of its high-profile customers in the $1 trillion market cap club.

Given that it builds the hardware that the rest of the tech industry depends on, TSMC’s success is a good bellwether for the health of the sector.

Netflix shares fall despite earnings beat

Netflix was once numbered among the world’s most prominent big tech stocks during the ‘FAANG’ (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix and Google) era. Now, with a market cap around $520 billion, it is no longer in the upper echelons of big tech stocks, analysts, if not the market as a whole, were impressed with its 16% year-on-year revenue growth, and 47% increase in earnings.

“Netflix continues to produce phenomenal results with ever more growth in its sights,” said Alicia Reese, SVP Media & Entertainment equity research at Wedbush Securities. “Even as investor expectations were high heading into the print, and shares reflected some disappointment in the size of the beat and raise, the quality of the beat and raise keeps us positive as we assess the ongoing expansion of Netflix’s free cash flow.”

S&P 500 earnings strong so far

TSMC and Netflix are two of the highest-profile tech companies to have beaten earnings estimates so far, but it’s a trend that is playing out across the S&P 500.

“That’s not unusual,” says Tom Stevenson, investment director at Fidelity International. “Companies tend to massage forecasts lower in the run up to results season.

“But it does suggest that earnings growth will continue at around the long-run average of 7%,” he adds.

Alphabet earnings: the watch-outs

Let’s take a closer look at the big tech earnings releases coming up this week, starting with Google’s parent company Alphabet.

Market sentiment towards Alphabet has dimmed in recent months. It is the cheapest of all the Magnificent Seven companies relative to past and projected earnings, trading at 21.22 times trailing earnings and 20.46 times projected earnings – below the S&P 500’s average on both fronts.

The fact that those two figures are so close to each other highlights part of the problem: analysts do not see Alphabet’s earnings growing significantly in the near future.

Many fear that generative AI could cut into demand for Google’s core Search business.

“New competition from language models like ChatGPT [is] a genuine threat,” says Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown. “Alphabet has a quality lineup of businesses, but its long-standing crown as the entry point to the internet is under pressure, and that’s put the valuation under strain.”

There is also the possibility that regulators could force a breakup of Google’s business, with two antitrust cases having found that the company operates an illegal monopoly over internet search over the last year.

“Calls for a forced Chrome divestment could challenge Alphabet’s search dominance, and that will keep some investors cautious until there’s more clarity,” said Josh Gilbert, market analyst at eToro.

Google has said it will appeal the decisions, but with Search lying at the heart of Google, any updates will be closely monitored on Alphabet’s earnings call on Wednesday.

Alphabet earnings: the tailwinds

While generative AI poses a threat to Alphabet’s business, it also offers opportunities, and investors will watch out for these keenly at the earnings call tomorrow.

“Alphabet is continuing to invest heavily in Gemini, its flagship AI assistant, as well as AI-powered ad products and enterprise tools,” says Josh Gilbert, market analyst at eToro. “With growing investor interest in monetisable AI applications, updates on Gemini’s integration into Search, Workspace and Cloud could be a key focus this quarter.”

Google Gemini logo seen on a smartphone screen

(Image credit: Didem Mente/Anadolu via Getty Images)

Capital expenditure is likely to rise, but the market won’t necessarily regard that as a negative given the arms race that big tech companies are engaged in over AI.

“In this environment, it’s spend or get left behind,” says Gilbert.

Tesla earnings: under-delivery becoming a habit

Tesla’s earnings will be released under a cloud: delivery numbers fell year-on-year for the second consecutive quarter. The company announced a total of 384,122 deliveries for the quarter on 2 July.

“Elon’s position as a Tony Stark-like personality at the head of the company was a boon for a long time, but it’s hard to argue that his prominence isn’t having some detrimental effect on the brand,” says Josh Gilbert, market analyst at eToro. Read more on Musk’s changing relationship with Tesla here: Who’s driving Tesla?

Tesla earnings: the robo-revolution

Tesla believers, though, don’t tend to have their faith shaken easily. Few are more bullish than Dan Ives, global head of technology research at Wedbush Securities.

Ives points to an uptick in Chinese sales during June as one reason for optimism ahead of Tesla’s earnings.

“Despite seeing more low-cost models enter the market from Chinese OEMs like BYD, Nio, Xpeng, and others, the company’s recent updates to the Model Y spurred increased demand,” says Ives.

With the long-awaited robotaxi launch having taken place in Austin earlier this month, there will be plenty for Musk to shout about if he wants to. Investors will look for updates on all things robotics when gauging Tesla’s mid-term prospects.

“There are a number of other key endeavors at Tesla including Optimus and the future of robotics, with Tesla one of the clear future leaders in AI in our view,” says Ives.

Tesla Optimus humanoid robot on display inside the Tesla pop-up store near Shibuya crossing, Tokyo

Can robotics endeavours like the robotaxi or Optimus humanoid robot (pictured) re-energise Tesla investors?

(Image credit: Stanislav Kogiku/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)

Thanks for following our reporting ahead of Tesla and Alphabet's earnings. We're leaving things here for today, but join us here again tomorrow morning for a full day of preview and analysis ahead of live coverage of the earnings releases in the evening.

Good morning, and welcome back to our live coverage of big tech earnings season.

When do Alphabet and Tesla announce earnings?

Swipe to scroll horizontally

When (BST)

What

9pm

US markets close. Earnings will be released after this time.

9.30pm

Alphabet’s earnings call begins. Alphabet’s results will have been released before this starts. The call is likely to last around one hour.

10.30pm

Tesla’s earnings call begins. Tesla’s results will have been released before this starts. The call is likely to last around one hour.

Alphabet and Tesla earnings: what to expect

Analysts are forecasting the below revenue and earnings per share figures at Alphabet and Tesla’s releases this evening, according to consensus estimates from analysts polled by FactSet and LSEG:

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Company

Revenue (FactSet)

Earnings per share (FactSet)

Revenue (LSEG)

Earnings per share (LSEG)

Alphabet

$93.97 billion

$2.18

$93.97 billion

$2.18

Tesla

$22.28 billion

$0.40

$22.63 billion

$0.41

Based on FactSet estimates, analysts expect Tesla’s revenue to fall 12.6% year-on-year, and for its earnings to fall by 23.1%.

The forecasts imply a 10.9% increase in revenue and a 15.3% increase in earnings for Google’s parent company Alphabet.

Alphabet earnings: beyond the numbers

Could Tesla invest in xAI?

One topic that could come up on Tesla’s earnings call this evening is the possibility of the company investing money into Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence start-up, xAI, which makes the Grok chatbot.

'Grok' logo is seen displayed on a mobile phone screen in front of a picture of Elon Musk

Could Elon Musk tap Tesla for investment into xAI, his AI start-up that develops Grok?

(Image credit: Didem Mente/Anadolu via Getty Images)

“Tesla is about to embark on an aggressive AI-focused strategy that we believe will include owning a significant piece of xAI,” says Dan Ives, global head of technology research at Wedbush Securities. “While near-term and this quarter the numbers are nothing to write home about, we believe investors are instead focused on the AI future at Tesla.”

Tesla investing in xAI would be subject to a shareholder vote later this year. Historically, Tesla investors have tended to follow Musk’s lead when it comes to corporate votes, but Josh Gilbert, market analyst at eToro, feels that convincing investors to put Tesla money into another Musk company could be a hard sell.

“Even if there is a theoretical future benefit for Tesla, it’s going to be a very hard case to make,” he says.

Winning the AI race: Trump to speak at AI summit as Tesla announces earnings

Today’s tech earnings announcements are conveniently timed, coinciding as they do with a major event in American AI.

President Donald Trump is due to speak at the ‘Winning the AI Race’ summit hosted by the All-In podcast and the Hill and Valley Forum in Washington, DC today.

Along with senior leaders from tech companies like Palantir and VC firms such as Y Combinator, Trump is expected to outline a roadmap to making the US the world’s leading AI economy.

  • The build-out of AI infrastructure;
  • Innovation aimed at blocking states’ ability to hinder AI development with regulation;
  • Ensuring that global US allies adopt its models, rather than those of “foreign adversaries”.

“The Trump keynote will likely aim at outlining a national AI strategy while targeting aggressive plans to accelerate chip exports reflecting the new administration’s elevated focus on winning the AI race,” says Ives.

Trump’s address is scheduled to take place at 5pm Eastern time, and as such could overlap with both Alphabet and Tesla’s earnings calls.

TSLA and GOOGL shares: one hour until US markets open

Alphabet shares likewise saw gains yesterday, of around 0.65%, but look set to open slightly down today.

Tesla share price opens 0.4% down ahead of earnings

US markets are now open, and shares in Tesla have opened the final session before the Q2 earnings release 0.4% below yesterday’s close.

Tesla shares have fallen around 18.3% so far this year

Alphabet’s shares opened today’s session slightly above yesterday’s close, but have since slipped below it.

Investors can expect big changes in both Alphabet and Tesla’s share price in after-hours trading following their earnings announcements today.

Magnificent Seven earnings calendar

Alphabet and Tesla are the first two Magnificent Seven companies to announce their Q2 earnings. Here’s the full schedule with the rest of the season’s releases:

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Company

Earnings release date

Alphabet

23 July

Tesla

23 July

Meta

30 July

Microsoft

30 July

Amazon

31 July

Apple

31 July

Nvidia

27 August

There is a big gap between the first six companies and Nvidia, as is usual. Some semiconductor companies, such as Broadcom, won’t release their results until September.

Google revenue: what to watch in Alphabet's earnings release

Google’s heart and soul is its Search business, but its Cloud division is the fastest-growing segment by some distance.

“Cloud growth is the other key driver for Alphabet, with Google Cloud looking much more competitive for AI workloads than it was in previous cloud wars,” says Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.

Alphabet’s share price movements following the earnings call could largely depend on whether the figure comes in above or below this level.

Look out also for Google Services revenue. This division includes the core search and advertising revenue that Google’s empire is built upon.

Analysts expect growth here to slow to 8.5%, implying a figure of $80.21 billion. Beating that would suggest that Google Search is more resilient than thought to the generative AI threat – for now at least. However, falling short could set alarm bells ringing.

We're going to pause coverage for a few hours, but we'll be back around 9pm, when US markets close. Join us then as we report Tesla and Alphabet's earnings releases live.

Tesla shares look set to close up ahead of earnings

Shares in Alphabet, though, have fallen through this session. Will Q2 results, and the subsequent earnings calls, change the picture for either stock?

US markets close; Alphabet and Tesla results now due

Swipe to scroll horizontally

Company

Revenue (FactSet)

Earnings per share (FactSet)

Revenue (LSEG)

Earnings per share (LSEG)

Alphabet

$93.97 billion

$2.18

$93.97 billion

$2.18

Tesla

$22.28 billion

$0.40

$22.63 billion

$0.41

BREAKING: Alphabet earnings rise 22% year-on-year

  • Revenue of $96.4 billion, 14% up year-on-year
  • Earnings per share of $2.31, up 22%

Alphabet beats on revenue and earnings

BREAKING: Tesla earnings fall by 23%

  • Total revenues down 12% year-on-year to $22.50 billion;
  • Earnings per share down 23% to $0.40.

Numbers like these were expected; earnings per share is exactly as FactSet analysts had forecast, while revenue is a touch higher.

Tesla shares are, in fact, gaining ground in after-hours trading following the earnings release.

Alphabet bumps capex to $85 billion

Tesla: affordable car is now in production

Alphabet earnings call starts

Alphabet earnings highlights: Alphabet CEO says AI is benefitting Google Search

Alphabet CEO Sundar Pichai is delivering his open remarks, and striking an emphatic tone on the positive impacts of AI on Google’s business.

“AI features cause users to search more, as they learn that search can meet more of their needs,” says Pichai. That seems to be a direct response to market fears that generative AI could eat into demand for Google Search.

The market is responding positively to these comments. Alphabet stock has rebounded to above where it closed today’s session, reversing the share price drop that accompanied the results’ initial release.

Alphabet’s capital expenditure in focus

According to Alphabet’s CFO Anat Ashkenazi, the extra $10 billion that Alphabet is spending this year largely reflects “additional investment in servers, the timing of delivery of servers and an acceleration in the pace of data centre production, primarily to meet cloud customer demand”.

Both she and Pichai have spoken of a tight supply environment for compute power, as the world’s technology companies vie for access to the world’s data centre resources.

Part of Alphabet’s response to that tight market is to increase the supply, by building out its own data centre infrastructure. But Pichai warns there will be a lag before that new capacity comes online; demand for compute power is going to outstrip supply for the foreseeable future.

Alphabet's share price has now gained more than 3% in after-hours trading, as investors digest management's framing of the results.

Can Google Search keep making money in the AI era?

Alphabet's earnings call sees shares gain 2.7%

Tesla: robotaxis could serve half US population by the end of the year

Musk aims for 1 million Optimus robots annually within five years

Market will need more convincing on Google’s AI staying power

“Alphabet is being forced to adapt or risk becoming a dinosaur in the new AI age,” says Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.

The numbers on the key areas – Search and Cloud revenue – were impressive. But the question of monetisation remains.

“The Alphabet AI investment case is something of an enigma,” says Britzman. While the market seems to have decided that Alphabet is destined to be a loser in the AI race, Britzman feels that view is “both short-sighted and overly pessimistic.

“That said,” he adds, “until there’s more confidence that AI integration won’t cannibalise core search revenue, and some clarity around ongoing legal battles, there’s enough uncertainty to cap near-term upside.”

Customers love robotaxi, says Tesla

Tesla CFO: not appropriate to discuss xAI investment in earnings call

Tesla stock falls 2.8% in after-hours trading

How will the end of EV tax credits impact Tesla?

That's the end of Tesla's earnings call. Shares are down over 4.6% in after-hours trading, with investors having responded negatively to a cautious set of responses from Musk and his team.

Tesla’s long game

Good morning, and welcome back to live coverage. We’ll spend today breaking down the implications of last night’s earnings results from Alphabet and Tesla.

There are two contrasting stories there. Alphabet’s share price gained 2.3% in after-hours trading as management was able to paint an upbeat picture of Google’s place in the AI ecosystem, in spite of the challenges to its core business that the technology poses.

But Tesla’s share price fell 6.1% in after-hours trading, as CEO Elon Musk warned that the company could be set for a tough period until the second half of 2026.

“The typical playbook for the past few quarters has been declining fundamentals but enough AI hype to keep investors sleeping at night,” said Matt Britzman, senior equity analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.

Musk’s cautious tone went against this typical pattern, but he was as ever bullish about the longer-term plan for Tesla, saying it is easier to predict where the company will be in five years’ time than in one or two.

“Tesla is in a very small cohort of companies with enough growth potential that investors are, for now at least, willing to look past weakening core financials,” says Britzman. “Last night's comments confirmed many fears around tariffs, rising costs, tougher margins, and struggling cash flows.

“But with that now firmly built in as the base case, the AI story can take back the wheel.

Robotaxi versus Waymo

One of the big questions that surrounds Alphabet and Tesla – and which both management teams discussed on last night’s earnings calls – is the future of the self-driving car market. Google’s Waymo and Tesla’s robotaxi are viewed as the two front-runners.

Waymo has now covered 100 miles on public roads, it was revealed yesterday. But Elon Musk went out of his way to talk down Waymo’s prospects, saying “Google is good at AI, yes, but they’re not good at real-world AI”.

ARK Invest – known for its bullish stance on Tesla – explains why they feel Tesla is the frontrunner in this race.

“Waymo in San Francisco, while more expensive than Uber and Lyft, are already starting to take share,” says Sam Korus, director of research for autonomous technology & robotics at ARK Invest. “And there are a lot of reasons why Tesla should be able to offer rides for a lower price than Waymo.

“They're using vision only, so their vehicles are less expensive. They have an adaptable fleet, so they can meet peak trough demand, without having underutilised vehicles. And they've got manufacturing scale so don't have to negotiate with other auto manufacturers.”

He adds that Tesla produces around 5,000 cars per day, which is around double the size of Waymo’s entire fleet. All of these can hypothetically become self-driving robotaxis.

“At the end of the day, people are going to look at an app and say, I can get from point A to point B for less money,” adds Korus.

Google Search looks safe for now

“Management commentary should alleviate investor caution around the perceived risks of generative AI on the Search business,” said Scott Devitt, managing director, Equity Research at Wedbush Securities. “These concerns are overdone, in our view, with Alphabet validating its ability to navigate this period of transition by exhibiting healthy query volume growth across both new and traditional surfaces.”

Top-line revenue growth for the Search arm beat analysts’ expectations, coming in at 11.7%. Paid click growth accelerated from 2% in Q1 to 4% in Q2.

While Alphabet still trades at the lowest earnings multiple of all Magnificent Seven companies, Devitt feels there is room for this improve over the coming quarters as investors become more comfortable with “the current macro environment, regulatory risk and the impact of generative AI on the business”.

Tesla and Alphabet earnings recap

Here’s a reminder of the headline results that Alphabet announced last night:

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Header Cell - Column 0

Expected

Reported

Year-on-year change

Revenue

$93.97 billion

$96.4 billion

14%

Earnings per share (adjusted)

$2.18

$2.31

22%

Tesla’s results looked like this:

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Header Cell - Column 0

Expected

Reported

Year-on-year change

Revenue

$22.28 billion

$22.50 billion

-12%

Earnings per share (adjusted)

$0.40

$0.40

-23%

Expectations are based on the consensus estimates of analysts polled by FactSet.

Tesla stock continues to fall

The data centre supply gap

There was much talk during Alphabet’s earnings call yesterday on the tightness of compute supply: that is, how much resource is available in AI-dedicated data centres compared to the demand for it.

That tight supply is what eventually ameliorated the market’s response to Alphabet’s eye-watering $85 billion capex figure for 2025. There is huge demand for resources, and with Google Cloud revenue growth exceeding expectations, it makes sense for Alphabet to invest in capturing this market.

“AI adoption is growing at a speed far greater than what anyone is prepared for,” says Hortense Bioy, head of sustainable investing research at Morningstar Sustainalytics. Morningstar’s demand model forecasts US data centre capacity to triple between 2024 and 2030.

So while Google’s investment seems extreme at first glance, this is a market with significant growth potential. Google Cloud’s backlog increased 38% year-on-year, “implying continued momentum in the coming periods”, says Scott Devitt, managing director, Equity Research at Wedbush Securities.

Thank you for following our coverage of Alphabet and Tesla's earnings releases. We're going to end things here for now, but we'll be back next week for coverage of the next four Magnificent Seven stocks to announce earnings: Amazon, Apple, Meta and Microsoft.