Trump didn’t so much win the US election as Clinton lost it
Donald Trump didn’t win the US election because a lot of extra voters were swayed to the Republican cause. He won because Democrats failed to vote for Hillary Clinton.
Is there really a revolution under way in the US? Look at the voting numbers on the election and the argument isn't as easy to make as you might think.
You can divide electorates up into four groups: the ones who always vote for Party A; the ones who always vote for Party B; the ones who can't make up their minds (the undecided); and finally the ones who don't vote. The focus in elections is always on the undecideds the ones who make up the political middle ground and in the end decide who wins. In the US that means the "battleground states" the ones neither side is sure of winning.
Look at the US election with that in mind and you will note that there was no great surge in Republican support. In fact, it looks like the Republican vote in this election was much the same as its share in the 2012 election. The change here was not Trump swaying people to his cause. It was Clintonlosing them from hers: fewer people voted Democrat than in 2012 and it was that (loss not gain) that gave Trump Florida (29 electoral votes), for example. The other votes either stayed home (voter turnout looks to be a little below 2012) or went for various non-viable candidates (an easy cop out for those who know they should vote but couldn't cope with either Trump or Clinton).
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
We will see what that means for the next election when all the data is in. But it could be that despite all the hysteria there is no real need for America's Democrats to move very far left or right to win the next election. Pretty much any polite, clean-cut person standing on a moderate centre-ground ticket, who is not related to a previous president, will probably do the trick.
Unless of course, against all expectation, Donald Trump turns out to be a good president and manages to increase the Republican share of the vote next time round.
For now, I'm thinking about the huge number of people who didn't vote. Do they not bother because a) they are so disillusioned with the process and the political culture that they think it will make no difference at all, or b) because life is really just fine so it's not worth the bother?
Sign up to Money Morning
Our team, led by award winning editors, is dedicated to delivering you the top news, analysis, and guides to help you manage your money, grow your investments and build wealth.
Merryn Somerset Webb started her career in Tokyo at public broadcaster NHK before becoming a Japanese equity broker at what was then Warburgs. She went on to work at SBC and UBS without moving from her desk in Kamiyacho (it was the age of mergers).
After five years in Japan she returned to work in the UK at Paribas. This soon became BNP Paribas. Again, no desk move was required. On leaving the City, Merryn helped The Week magazine with its City pages before becoming the launch editor of MoneyWeek in 2000 and taking on columns first in the Sunday Times and then in 2009 in the Financial Times
Twenty years on, MoneyWeek is the best-selling financial magazine in the UK. Merryn was its Editor in Chief until 2022. She is now a senior columnist at Bloomberg and host of the Merryn Talks Money podcast - but still writes for Moneyweek monthly.
Merryn is also is a non executive director of two investment trusts – BlackRock Throgmorton, and the Murray Income Investment Trust.
-
8 of the best properties for sale with equestrian facilities
The best properties for sale with equestrian facilities – from a Georgian manor in Ceredigion, Wales, to a period farmhouse with an equine swimming pool in Banbury, Oxfordshire
By Natasha Langan Published
-
Energy bills to rise by 1.2% in January 2025
Energy bills are set to rise 1.2% in the New Year when the latest energy price cap comes into play, Ofgem has confirmed
By Dan McEvoy Published
-
Beating inflation takes more luck than skill – but are we about to get lucky?
Opinion The US Federal Reserve managed to beat inflation in the 1980s. But much of that was down to pure luck. Thankfully, says Merryn Somerset Webb, the Bank of England may be about to get lucky.
By Merryn Somerset Webb Published
-
Rishi Sunak can’t fix all our problems – so why try?
Opinion Rishi Sunak’s Spring Statement is an attempt to plaster over problems the chancellor can’t fix. So should he even bother trying, asks Merryn Somerset Webb?
By Merryn Somerset Webb Published
-
Young people are becoming a scarce resource – we should value them more highly
Opinion In the last two years adults have been bizarrely unkind to children and young people. That doesn’t bode well for the future, says Merryn Somerset Webb.
By Merryn Somerset Webb Published
-
Ask for a pay rise – everyone else is
Opinion As inflation bites and the labour market remains tight, many of the nation's employees are asking for a pay rise. Merryn Somerset Webb explains why you should do that too.
By Merryn Somerset Webb Published
-
Why central banks should stick to controlling inflation
Opinion The world’s central bankers are stepping out of their traditional roles and becoming much more political. That’s a mistake, says Merryn Somerset Webb.
By Merryn Somerset Webb Published
-
How St Ives became St Tropez as the recovery drives prices sky high
Opinion Merryn Somerset Webb finds herself at the epicentre of Britain’s V-shaped recovery as pent-up demand flows straight into Cornwall’s restaurants and beaches.
By Merryn Somerset Webb Published
-
The real problem of Universal Basic Income (UBI)
Merryn's Blog April employment numbers showed 75 per cent fewer people in the US returned to employment compared to expectations. Merryn Somerset-Webb explains how excessive government support is causing a shortage of labour.
By Merryn Somerset Webb Published
-
Why an ageing population is not necessarily the disaster many people think it is
Opinion We’ve got used to the idea that an ageing population is a bad thing. But that’s not necessarily true, says Merryn Somerset Webb.
By Merryn Somerset Webb Published