There's a new consensus in Scotland among politicians. It is that there is still a a huge appetite for independence in Scotland, but that in the absence of an immediate mandate for independence, almost all the population isin favour of 'devo max'/home rule or whatever you might like to call it instead.
But is this really the case, or is it an assumption too far? 45% of those who voted in the September referendumvoted for independence.However, if you take the turnout into account, only 38% of eligible adults actually voted 'Yes'.
That's high. But the key point is that 62% didn't vote yes they either voted 'No', or didn't care enough to vote, something that suggests the appetite for independence isn't quite as high as the SNP likes to think (their view remains that independence is more a matter of 'when' than 'if').
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Note that the Scottish Social Attitudes Survey has long told us that the percentage of Scots in favour of independence has long shifted between 27-35%.
If you compare that to the percentage voting 'Yes', you might think that getting the vote up only three percentage points in 18 months of passionate and very well-financed campaigning isn't actually all that hard.
There were polls afterthe referendum (notably by Lord Ashcroft) which suggested that many of the 'No' voters were concerned about things that aren't a problem with devo max (the currency and defence for example).
But while this kind of thing might make it clear that 'No' voters were nervous about the economy, it doesn't confirm that they perceived devolution to be the answer home rule could arguably be bad for the economy in much the same way as independence.
We also have no evidence that the panic vow (in which all parties promised devolution) made any difference to the final vote. It wasn't a vote for devolution; it was a vote against independence. Different things.
I'm pro-devolution myself (the Scottish government might be held more to account if it had to raise more of its taxes as well as spend money), but I am concerned that all parties and groups are now assuming that everyone else is too when we have no real evidence that is the case.
There was a great letter to The Times a few weeks ago from a reader who said "Politicians are always telling me I want change. I don't." It may be lots of Scottish voters don't either.
-
Will the Bitcoin price hit $100,000?With Bitcoin prices trading just below $100,000, we explore whether the cryptocurrency can hit the milestone.
-
Inheritance tax receipts jump 11% even before Autumn Budget overhaulOfficial figures show inheritance tax receipts are rising even before the chancellor’s changes to reliefs
-
Beating inflation takes more luck than skill – but are we about to get lucky?Opinion The US Federal Reserve managed to beat inflation in the 1980s. But much of that was down to pure luck. Thankfully, says Merryn Somerset Webb, the Bank of England may be about to get lucky.
-
Rishi Sunak can’t fix all our problems – so why try?Opinion Rishi Sunak’s Spring Statement is an attempt to plaster over problems the chancellor can’t fix. So should he even bother trying, asks Merryn Somerset Webb?
-
Young people are becoming a scarce resource – we should value them more highlyOpinion In the last two years adults have been bizarrely unkind to children and young people. That doesn’t bode well for the future, says Merryn Somerset Webb.
-
Ask for a pay rise – everyone else isOpinion As inflation bites and the labour market remains tight, many of the nation's employees are asking for a pay rise. Merryn Somerset Webb explains why you should do that too.
-
Why central banks should stick to controlling inflationOpinion The world’s central bankers are stepping out of their traditional roles and becoming much more political. That’s a mistake, says Merryn Somerset Webb.
-
How St Ives became St Tropez as the recovery drives prices sky highOpinion Merryn Somerset Webb finds herself at the epicentre of Britain’s V-shaped recovery as pent-up demand flows straight into Cornwall’s restaurants and beaches.
-
The real problem of Universal Basic Income (UBI)Merryn's Blog April employment numbers showed 75 per cent fewer people in the US returned to employment compared to expectations. Merryn Somerset-Webb explains how excessive government support is causing a shortage of labour.
-
Why an ageing population is not necessarily the disaster many people think it isOpinion We’ve got used to the idea that an ageing population is a bad thing. But that’s not necessarily true, says Merryn Somerset Webb.
