European stockmarkets will bounce back

Last year was one to forget for European stockmarkets. But 2021 should prove better.

Investors in Europe are hoping that 2021 proves a duller year than 2020. Last year was one to forget, with the pan-European Stoxx 600 finishing down by 3.8%. The pain was not evenly shared. Spain’s IBEX finished the year down almost 15%, with France’s CAC falling by 7.1%. More happily, Germany’s Dax delivered a positive total return of 3.5%.

The MSCI Europe index, which includes British shares, posted its worst annual performance since the 1980s relative to the world average last year, says Morgan Stanley in a research note. European earnings may have fallen by 33%, more than double the global average of 15%. But a strong cyclical recovery is likely to take hold later this year, triggering a multi-year surge in profits. That should feed into stock prices, which closely track earnings trends – in 2004-2005, the last time the region enjoyed two successive years of 20%+ profit growth, the MSCI Europe index returned 33%.

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Markets editor

Alex is an investment writer who has been contributing to MoneyWeek since 2015. He has been the magazine’s markets editor since 2019. 

Alex has a passion for demystifying the often arcane world of finance for a general readership. While financial media tends to focus compulsively on the latest trend, the best opportunities can lie forgotten elsewhere. 

He is especially interested in European equities – where his fluent French helps him to cover the continent’s largest bourse – and emerging markets, where his experience living in Beijing, and conversational Chinese, prove useful. 

Hailing from Leeds, he studied Philosophy, Politics and Economics at the University of Oxford. He also holds a Master of Public Health from the University of Manchester.