Nick Train: how investors should navigate Covid's winners and losers
The challenge facing investors, says fund manager Nick Train, is that this year’s winners have priced in a lot of optimism, but relief for depressed stocks may be some way off.
Nick Train is one of the UK’s most successful fund managers. His strategy boils down to buying good companies with high-quality brands, holding for the long run and – famously – spending as little time as possible worrying about the wider economy. However, the Covid-19 lockdown has been hard to ignore and in his commentary to the half-year results of the Lindsell Train investment trust (which has climbed by more than 600% over the past decade), he gives his views on prospects for his holdings in a post-coronavirus world.
Companies with a “digital growth story” have actively benefited from lockdown, notes Train, with payments processor PayPal and video-games giant Nintendo among the trust’s biggest gainers this year. However, the drinks industry – another of Train’s favoured sectors – has lagged. In other financial shocks “drinks companies have earned a reputation for being ‘defensive’”. But this time the likes of Heineken have suffered as pubs and restaurants have shut and people have socialised less.
The challenge facing all investors, notes Train, is that this year’s winners now have a lot of optimism baked into prices, but relief for depressed stocks may yet be some way off. “Tourism, live sport, festivals, pubs; when you get down to it: cities. All of these answer basic human needs and I expect will come roaring back. But when?” For now, the portfolio is about two-thirds invested in current or potential “digital winners”, with the rest “in the owners of beloved and trusted consumer brands”, which Train considers the right “strategic shape”.
Subscribe to MoneyWeek
Subscribe to MoneyWeek today and get your first six magazine issues absolutely FREE
Sign up to Money Morning
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Don't miss the latest investment and personal finances news, market analysis, plus money-saving tips with our free twice-daily newsletter
Sign up to Money Morning
Our team, led by award winning editors, is dedicated to delivering you the top news, analysis, and guides to help you manage your money, grow your investments and build wealth.
-
8 of the best properties for sale with indoor swimming pools
The best properties for sale with indoor swimming pools – from an award-winning contemporary house in East Sussex, to a converted barn in Hampshire
By Natasha Langan Published
-
Chinese stocks slump on first trading day of 2025
Chinese stocks suffered in the new year from their worst first day of trading since 2016, despite a state stimulus package
By Alex Rankine Published
-
Why Wise could be worth a lot more than its share price implies
Foreign-exchange transfer service Wise has the potential to become the Amazon of its sector – here's why you should consider buying this stock now
By Jamie Ward Published
-
How to find the best investment ideas that others will miss
Find the best investment ideas by observing trends and listening to anecdotes, says Max King
By Max King Published
-
Can The Gym Group pump up your portfolio?
Gym Group was one of the best UK small-cap stocks in 2024 and will beef up your profits this New Year
By Rupert Hargreaves Published
-
MoneyWeek's five predictions for investors in 2025
MoneyWeek's City columnist gazes into his crystal ball and sees five unexpected events in store for investors in 2025
By Matthew Lynn Published
-
How buy-and-build stocks deliver strong returns
Bunzl, DCC and Diploma became successful through buy-and-build – rolling up dozens of unglamorous businesses. How does it work and what makes it successful?
By Jamie Ward Published
-
Singapore Technologies Engineering shows strong growth
Singapore Technologies Engineering offers diversification, improving profitability and income
By Dr Mike Tubbs Published
-
Has RIT Capital fallen out of favour?
RIT Capital saw its discount soar amid weak returns, and investors remain sceptical of a turnaround
By Max King Published
-
Why emerging markets are waiting for a weak dollar
Emerging markets have had a better year but, like everything else, are still lagging far behind the US
By Cris Sholto Heaton Published