Lloyds: House price affordability hits 11-year high

The gap between earnings and house prices has fallen to an 11-year low, but higher mortgage costs continue to squeeze buyers.

The average UK home now costs 7.3 times median earnings, down from 7.6 in 2025 and at its lowest point since 2015, according to new research by Lloyds Bank.

Lloyds data showed the average UK house price rose by 0.5% to £299,131 between the second quarter (Q2) of 2025 and Q2 2026, while median earnings went up by 4.5% to £40,790 over the same period.

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But higher mortgage rates resulting, in part, from the conflict in the Middle East are counteracting this trend, meaning owning a home is still a challenge for many.

According to data firm Moneyfacts, the average two-year fixed-rate deal is 5.93% as of 1 October, up from 4.83% on 27 February, the day before the US and Israel began strikes on Iran, which led to global oil prices surging.

Lloyds suggested the average monthly mortgage payment rose from £1,100 to £1,157 between Q2 2025 and Q2 2026.

Andrew Assam, mortgages director at Lloyds, said: “There are some encouraging signs for people looking to buy a home. Wages have continued to rise while house prices have remained relatively stable, helping to narrow the gap between earnings and house prices.

"However, affordability remains stretched for many households.”

Affordability improves for first-time buyers

Incomes relative to house prices have improved for first-time buyers, according to Lloyds.

The bank said the average property price for first-time buyers rose by 0.3% to £239,681 between Q2 2025 and Q2 2026.

The average UK first home now costs 5.9 times median earnings, down from 6.1 in 2025. This is the lowest the figure has been since 2015.

Lloyds acknowledged, though, that saving for a deposit still remains a significant challenge for first-time buyers, who typically need to save around £24,000 to get on the ladder with a 10% deposit.

Higher borrowing costs are also an issue, with the average monthly repayment rising from £1,100 to £1,150 between 2025 and 2026.

According to Lloyds’s figures, the average first-time buyer mortgage payment now accounts for around 34% of income compared with 41% for those renting.

Prime minister Andy Burnham has made getting people on the property ladder for the first time a key priority, recently announcing the Your First Home scheme.

The equity loan scheme means first-time buyers will be able to get a home with a 2.5% deposit, backed up with a 20% loan from the government.

Affordability pressures persist in London and the South East

London and the South East remain the least affordable places to buy a home based on local house prices relative to median incomes, Lloyds’s research found.

The house price to income ratio fell from 10.9 to 10.3 in Greater London and from 9.7 to 9.1 in the South East between 2025 and 2026 – meaning both areas became more affordable.

Areas where house prices tend to be lower generally saw less dramatic improvements in affordability.

The house price to income ratio in the North East, for example, dropped from 5.1 to 5.0, while in the North West it fell from 6.5 to 6.3 and 6.0 to 5.8 in Yorkshire and the Humber.

Northern Ireland was the only UK region where homes became less affordable between 2025 and 2026.

House prices rose by 7.4% in the region compared to a 3.7% rise in median earnings, meaning the average house now costs 6.0 times median earnings versus 5.8 times last year.

Tom Bill, head of UK residential research at estate agent Knight Frank, said: “The house price gap between London and the rest of the country continues to narrow as more affordable parts of the country see stronger growth.”

Bill believes that this dynamic will eventually see demand gravitate back towards London and South East England, re-starting the housing cycle again.

“The recent mortgage rate spike has only just begun to hit, which will keep a lid on activity and prices for the rest of this year, something that will affect highly-leveraged borrowers, like first-time buyers, hardest,” he added.

The cheapest areas to buy a home relative to earnings are in Scotland, according to Lloyds’s research. In Inverclyde and Aberdeen, the average home costs 3.5 times earnings in both areas as of Q2 2026.

The most expensive areas to buy a home relative to earnings are in Elmbridge in Surrey and Kensington and Chelsea, London. Buyers in these areas need to earn 17.4 and 17.3 times the median UK salary respectively to buy the typical home there.

Source: Lloyds Banking Group/Office for National Statistics (ONS)